Exxonmobil predicts climate change: US oil giant expects global warming of up to 3 degrees in 2050

Due to the continued heavy use of fossil fuels, the oil industry is currently expecting global temperatures to rise by 2.5 to 3 degrees as early as 2050. The figures are part of the annual energy outlook from the US oil multinational Exxonmobil. Exxonmobil is considered the largest publicly traded oil and gas company in the United States and is one of the most important players in the industry globally. According to the analysis, Exxon expects that the burning of coal in particular could decline more slowly than previously expected.

Many experts around the world do not expect global warming to reach 3 degrees compared to pre-industrial times until the year 2100. However, in a joint call last September, the German Meteorological Society and the German Physical Society expected this threshold to be reached in 2050. That would have fatal consequences for life on earth.

Exxon justifies the negative scenario primarily with the increased use of fossil energy. In 2050, coal will still contribute 15 percent to the global energy mix, one percentage point more than forecast the year before. Last year it was around 25 percent. Coal is still an important energy source in China and other Asian countries and is increasingly seen as a key to energy security, especially due to geopolitical changes.

Last week, the International Energy Agency forecast that global coal consumption would rise to a record 8.94 billion tons this year as the Iran war chokes off exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. But the conflict is not yet part of Exxon's calculations - apparently it is too early to assess its long-term effects.

Nevertheless, emissions are rising because of many countries' pursuit of energy security. Exxon expects energy-related CO₂ emissions to fall to 30 billion tons of CO₂ worldwide in 2050. Last year, however, the company still calculated 27 billion tons of CO₂. The UN refers to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): In order to keep global warming below two degrees in 2050, emissions would have to fall to 11 billion tons of CO₂ by then.

For comparison: Germany emitted a total of 649 million tons of CO₂ last year - or around 1.5 percent of global emissions.

Exxonmobil also has negative prospects for the capture and storage of carbon dioxide (carbon capture and storage, CCS). CCS is considered by experts to be one of the few ways to reverse global warming to a certain extent. However: While Exxon predicted last year, in accordance with other studies, that around 3.1 billion tons of CO₂ could be removed from the atmosphere and stored annually by 2050, it now expects an additional 2 billion tons. The reason: Many methods were unlikely to be profitable.

An evaluation by climate researchers from Harvard University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) in 2023 showed how well Exxon is informed about the climate consequences of its activities. The company has accurately predicted global warming as a result of greenhouse gas emissions since the late 1970s, the researchers wrote in the journal Science. At the same time, the oil multinational systematically downplayed the connection for decades.

It was already fundamentally known that Exxon had long known about the threat of global warming. The climate researchers evaluated internal company forecasts from 1977 to 2003 - they called the result “astonishing”. The Exxon forecasts were significantly better than those of the US space agency NASA.