MV: The AfD is taking over the northeast? Extrapolation sees head-to-head with SPD, CDU falls

By Kommando 161

Deutsch (original) · Auto-translated to English

Symbolbild · Gregor Wünsch from Leipzig, Deutschland / CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

First projection (as of 6:10 p.m.): AfD 37.0%, just ahead of SPD 35.5% – a photo finish for first place in the northeast.
CDU falls to 5.5%, historic debacle since 1990 - state leader Peters speaks of “crushed” between AfD and SPD.
The Left (7.5%), the Greens (5.5%) and the BSW (5.0%) are all just above the threshold - nothing has been decided.
According to the first projection, red-red-green (SPD/Left/Greens) would be mathematically possible, but it is not enough for an AfD sole government.

6:10 p.mFirst projection: AfD 37.0% ahead of SPD 35.5%, Left 7.5%, CDU and Greens each 5.5%, BSW 5.0%. Merz speaks of a “disaster” for the CDU.
6:00 p.mFirst forecast (ARD/ZDF) after the polling stations closed: AfD slightly ahead of SPD, CDU close to the threshold.

Gray: Election 2021 Color: Forecast/extrapolation 2026 (party colors). As of 6:10 p.m., provisional.

AfD
SPD
CDU
left
Greens

The first projection confirms what has become apparent since Saxony-Anhalt: The AfD is following the rightward shift, more than doubling its result from 2021 - but not (yet) enough for a sole government. Schwesig's SPD has almost managed to catch up, but is still losing massively compared to 2021 (39.6% → 35.5%). The CDU is the real loser of the evening: crushed between the two poles, it almost halved and slipped to its historically worst state election result. Without the AfD, mathematically only a red-red-green coalition remains - assuming the Greens and the Left make it safely. The Left is thus tipping the scales: without their votes in the state parliament, there is no democratic majority against the AfD. All numbers provisional, as of 6:10 p.m. – extrapolation, no official count.