Berlin: Four parties, one photo finish

Projection 6:57 p.m.: Left 25.5%, clearly ahead of CDU with 20% - Greens 15.4%, AfD 13.9%, SPD 12%, BSW 5%.
Linke even extends her lead compared to the first prediction - photo finish between the first two has collapsed, Linke is ahead.
SPD falls from 18.4% (2023) to 12% - historically worst result for the Social Democrats in Berlin.
Mathematically, every majority without the AfD remains dependent on a three-party alliance - the extreme right is excluded from everyone despite gains.

18:57Extrapolation (ZDF/Election Research Group): Left 25.5% – CDU 20% – Greens 15.4% – AfD 13.9% – SPD 12% – BSW 5%. The Left increases its lead slightly, AfD gains minimally.
6:00 p.mFirst forecast (Infratest dimap/ARD): Left 24.9% – CDU 20.0% – AfD 15.7% – Greens 15.0% – SPD 11.9% – BSW 5.0%.
5:40 p.mPolling stations in Berlin closed, counting of around 2.4 million votes cast begins.

■ Left
■ CDU
■ Greens
■ AfD
■ SPD

The expected photo finish between the Left and the CDU did not materialize: the projection from 6:57 p.m. sees the Left with top candidate Elif Eralp clearly ahead, and the lead is even growing compared to the first forecast. If this is confirmed, a left-wing governing mayor would move into the Red City Hall for the first time - following the example of Zohran Mamdani in New York, to which Eralp had explicitly referred to during the election campaign. Stefan Evers' CDU, who only replaced the hapless Kai Wegner in July, has lost around eight points compared to 2023.

The AfD has made noticeable gains compared to 2023, but remains far from participating in government: any mathematical majority - whether Left/CDU/Greens, Left/CDU/SPD or other three-party combinations - consistently excludes it. The SPD suffers its historically worst result in Berlin and slips out of government. The race over the social issue – skyrocketing rents, crowding out, rent extortion – may have been a decisive factor in the outcome: whoever credibly opposed rent increases in the election campaign won. All figures as of 6:57 p.m., preliminary projections, further shifts possible during the evening.