The Houthi movement has taken over the entire Yemeni west coast in a lightning offensive and now controls the strategically crucial Bab al-Mandab strait. While Saudi Arabia is desperately asking for military support, the US is holding back - a sign that the Iran war is fundamentally shifting the balance of power in the region.

The military situation in Yemen has changed dramatically in just a few days. Since September 3, 2026, the Ansar Allah group, often referred to as the Houthis, conducted a large-scale offensive on the west coast, culminating on September 11 with the capture of the port city of Mocha and the strategic island of Majun in the center of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. According to them, around 5,400 square kilometers of territory were conquered and government troops supported by Saudi Arabia were driven out of six districts.

The capture of the west coast marks the worst setback for the Saudi-led coalition since the 2022 UN ceasefire. Government troops retreated in disarray; Reports from the region show soldiers selling their weapons and taking off their uniforms before heading towards Aden. Western military analysts have called the fall of Mocha a "turning point in the war" and warned of a possible collapse of government forces in southern Yemen.

The Houthis: Control of population centers and strategic autonomy

The Houthis control Yemen's most populous areas, including the capital Sanaa, the northern highland provinces and much of the west coast. This means that the majority of the Yemeni population is under their control. Since the civil war broke out in 2014, they have fought a years-long battle of attrition against the Saudi-led coalition, gaining extensive combat experience in the process. Its fighters are familiar with guerrilla tactics, drone operations and ballistic missiles.

The Houthis are allied with Iran, but do not act as its vassals. Iran supplies weapons, technical know-how and military advice, and the Houthis' strategic direction is closely linked to Iranian regional policy. Nevertheless, they pursue their own interests and act independently.

In the conflict with the USA and Israel, they are opening up new strategic options: their naval blockade against Israeli ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden was publicly announced and has affected international shipping traffic. At the same time, the Houthis have repeatedly concluded agreements with other states, such as ceasefire agreements with Saudi Arabia or agreements with the United Nations on humanitarian corridors.

The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has made the strait in Yemen even more important. Saudi Arabia, for example, has forwarded a large part of its oil deliveries via a pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Total happened in June of that year7.4 million barrels of oilthe Bab al-Mandab Strait daily, accounting for about 7 percent of global production.

By completely taking over the west coast, the Houthis have significantly improved their strategic position. They now control the entire coastline from the north to the Bab al-Mandab Strait and can influence shipping traffic in the Red Sea. This control allows them to put pressure on Saudi Arabia, the USA and the international oil trade. By attacking merchant ships, threatening to cut off oil supplies, or taking actions against the remaining government troops. The west coast is therefore a military, economic and political lever for a fight for control of Yemen.

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Saudi Arabia: Between cries for help and growing isolation

The Houthi offensive is a growing problem for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has exercised influence in Yemen for decades - economically, politically and militarily. In terms of population, Saudi Arabia is smaller than Yemen: around 35 million Saudis compared to around 43 million Yemenis.

Saudi Arabia is nominally superior to Yemen militarily. State-of-the-art fighter jets, Patriot defense systems and a defense budget of around $70 billion annually protect the face of a modern military. But this superiority has proven deceptive in the Yemen war. The Houthis have proven that they can hit the kingdom's strategic infrastructure with relatively simple means such as drones, ballistic missiles of their own design and guerrilla tactics.

Since the discovery of oil in 1938, Saudi Arabia has had a deep partnership with the United States, both economically and militarily. The USA is the most important arms supplier, security guarantor and buyer of Saudi oil. This alliance has resulted in Saudi interests often aligning with or subordinate to American interests. Saudi Arabia has relied on American security guarantees for decades. This dependence also brings with it problems: While the USA is tied up in the Iran war, Saudi Arabia has no military alternative but to join the conflict.

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The Houthis' threat to Saudi Arabian interests extends far beyond the battlefields of Yemen itself. The Houthis are capable of causing severe damage to Saudi Arabia's critical infrastructure. With drones and cruise missiles they can attack the east-west pipeline that transports oil from the Gulf fields to the Red Sea. You can hit refineries in Abqaiq and Yanbu - facilities that are central to global oil supplies. And they can reach cities like Riyadh and Mecca. Houthi drones had already attacked the Abqaiq facility in 2019 and temporarily halved Saudi oil production. Since then, the range and precision of Houthi weapons has improved significantly.

Saudi Arabia's military situation is precarious. According to regional officials, the kingdom is running out of interceptor missiles while also having to protect military installations, government buildings and oil facilities. Saudi Arabia has asked France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt for air defense support. The USA, as the most important ally, has so far shown little inclination to get involved directly. Britain has since agreed to provide limited air refueling support for Saudi defense flights, but not attack flights against the Houthis.

The “Mecca Defense Alliance” between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, which was concluded in August 2026, is facing its first test. Both countries have pledged their support, but concrete military measures are still pending. Pakistan has made it clear that the alliance does not apply to existing conflicts - the Houthi offensive is a "pre-existing conflict" and does not trigger the alliance. A military intervention by Pakistan is therefore not planned. Analysts doubt that the alliance will be able to act in the short term.

The USA: A hesitant hegemon

The US finds itself in a quandary. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia is pushing for direct military support; Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to intervene in a phone call on September 17th. On the other hand, the US military warns against expanding its commitment: stocks of interceptor missiles and long-range weapons have already been significantly reduced due to the Iran war.

On Sunday, President Trump withdrew an order to attack Houthi targets at the last minute - the planes were already loaded and the target lists were ready. The New York Times reported that fears of a new front in the shadow of the Iran war were crucial. Pentagon officials are divided: Some argue that an attack on the Houthis would further endanger US troops in the Iran war, since the Houthis have not yet attacked US ships. Others warn that inaction would betray an important ally.

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This reticence is remarkable. It shows that the USA is tying up its resources in the Iran war and is not able to open a second front without problems at the same time. For Saudi Arabia, this means growing strategic isolation: The USA, which has served as an enormous military conflict party in the Gulf for decades, is exhausted - at least when it comes to its capacities for the wars it has launched in West Asia. In this context, increased talks between the USA and representatives of the Houthis are now being considered in order to guarantee the passage of oil, at least in the near future.

A war that shifts the regional order

The Houthi offensive is much more than a tactical success. It is shifting the strategic balance in the region: Iran and its allies now effectively control two of the world's most important maritime bottlenecks - the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. Saudi Arabia, once a regional power and a close US ally, is more isolated. The USA, militarily tied up in the Iran war, can no longer fully fulfill its role as a security guarantor of Western interests in the Gulf.

And the Houthis have simultaneously evolved from a beleaguered militia into a force influencing the global economy and challenging the regional order. The Yemen war has finally become an arena of the larger conflict between Iran and its opponents - with consequences that reach far beyond the region.

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