Congressional elections USA | US midterms: Back to basics

Still a bargain compared to Germany, but in the car country USA it has become unaffordable for many since the war against Iran: Fuel Photo: AFP/Patrick T. FALLON [M] Oh, Superman, where are you now When everything’s gone wrong somehow?

Well, who recognized it? That's right, that's what Phil Collins once sang as the frontman of Genesis in one of the English band's rare political hits. Superman was apparently no longer to be found when everything was going down the drain: "The men in power are losing more and more control with every hour." The song "Land of Confusion" from 1986 criticized the nuclear build-up in the Cold War, but those lines also fit the current political mood in the USA quite well, even if the defining topics are different today.

In all of his previous election campaigns, President Donald Trump has portrayed himself as Superman, who mostly led people who were less educated and had less purchasing power to believe that he could really show the elites up there and quickly do everything better. If he had made their demand for more participation in the country's prosperity the center of his agenda, as promised, he might actually have become as popular as he still thinks he deserves to be today. Instead, he made politics for the elite, of which he himself belongs, and even placed himself at its head. In both his first and second terms, Trump passed large-scale tax cuts that were least beneficial to his electorate and, in fact, hurt them in many areas.

And so the economic situation of US citizens is once again the focus, but this time with the plot twist that, for the first time in over ten years, the majority no longer believes Trump and the Republicans can solve the economic problems. They had already lost elections twice while Trump was in the White House: in the midterm elections for Congress in 2018 and the presidential vote in 2020. If the polls are to be believed, it looks as if Tuesday's congressional elections will complete the trilogy of failures.

In the midterm elections in the USA on November 3rd, no new president will be elected - that won't be until 2028 - but 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be elected. The Republicans so far have narrow majorities in both chambers. If they lose this, Donald Trump would hardly be able to push through his agenda. In addition, there are gubernatorial elections in 36 states and three US territories as well as hundreds of other regional and local votes for parliaments and offices there. Even if Donald Trump is not on the ballot, Americans often use midterm elections as a means to express approval or protest toward the federal government. Since Trump is currently the most unpopular president in 80 years, his Republicans are predicted to suffer a heavy defeat. However, this is not certain. OK

The model from journalists and election analysts at Fifty-Plus-One predicts that the Democrats have a 99 percent chance of taking back the House of Representatives just days before the election. Their single-digit deficit could turn into a lead of 50 seats or more. Even in the US Senate, for which a takeover of power seemed unthinkable two years ago, the chances of a Democratic majority are now around 3:1.

Two years ago, Trump was given a slowly recovering economy by his predecessor Joe Biden. Unemployment figures had fallen after several crises, as had inflation, even if the positive effects were still not noticeable for many people. So they pinned their hopes on Trump. After a few months, however, he raised import tariffs for almost all countries in the world, causing inflation to rise again. This was followed by the war against Iran, which has also caused fuel prices to explode since the end of February. Trump was elected on the promise of lowering prices. He achieved the complete opposite. No matter how much he denies it and tries to sell listeners in almost all of his appearances that the economy is doing “great.”

This is also true for him and the richest people in the country. But the rest hardly believe Trump anymore. And the Democrats gratefully accept this gift. Zohran Mamdani was the first to prove in the mayoral election in New York City a year ago that the issue of affordability had once again become promising for the left - even before the start of the Iran War. Since then, it has been the central campaign issue in every constituency and every state.

The increased prices affect many areas. In addition to energy sources such as diesel (54% more expensive than when Trump took office), gasoline (36%) and heating oil (53%), there are also fertilizers for farmers, food and rent. Depending on the specifics of the constituency, opposition candidates, whether running as Democrats or independents, can choose the right price driver for their campaigns. Your Republican opponents have nothing to counter this because they either supported Trump's course as representatives or, as challengers, do not dare to criticize the man in the White House.

Candidates on the Democratic left, from New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, are focusing on health care costs when it comes to affordability. Because government cuts were also decided in this area as a result of Trump's tax reform, as a result of which costs for patients rose and hospitals had to close, they see the perfect time to finally make their long-standing demand for health insurance for everyone the majority opinion with which to win elections.

Almost ten percent or just over 25 million US citizens still do not have health insurance. Even those who are often pay high insurance premiums and, if necessary, have to pay additional horrendous deductibles. The cost of medication and treatment is more expensive than anywhere else in the world because the market is constantly driving up prices.

The conservatives may not immediately vote for the Democrats, but they also lack any motivation to vote for the Republicans again.

According to an OECD study, the USA spent $14,885 per capita on health in 2024. Absolute highest value among all OECD countries and far more than the average of 5967 US dollars. Spending represents 17.2 percent of gross domestic product, compared to an average of 9.3 percent. However, with only 2.7 doctors per 1,000 citizens, the country is below the OECD average of 3.9. More than a quarter of all Americans have medical debt. It is estimated that more than half a million people file for personal bankruptcy every year due to escalating healthcare costs. The Democratic establishment under Biden was never able to get this problem under control, which is why it is now under pressure from the left. And the slogan “Medicare for all” also has many supporters among Trump voters.

Conservative supporters may therefore not vote for the Democrats on Tuesday, but they also lack any motivation to vote for the Republicans again. Together with Trump, they not only promised falling prices, but also not to start any more wars. But now their voters have to watch as Trump burns up the troops around Iran and causes prices at home to skyrocket. And the Republicans in Congress are letting him have his way, even if it hurts them in the election campaign.

Therefore, they rely on diversionary tactics. Democratic challengers everywhere are being bombarded with the same accusation in election commercials: “Candidate X supports gender reassignment for children. They are for they/them. I'm for you!« Trump had great success against Kamala Harris in 2024 with a spot that was almost worded exactly the same, so it is now being copied hundreds of times. According to the surveys, transphobia is hardly effective anymore.

The ad once had two goals: first, to portray Harris as too extreme, and second, as someone who focused on anything other than the issues that mattered most to voters: the cost of living and border security. "This is exactly where the problem lies for the Republicans today," says President Barack Obama's former communications advisor, Dan Pfeiffer. "By spending so much time discussing transgender issues, they are doing exactly what they accused Kamala Harris of doing: focusing on something other than what is most important to voters." Yet less than one in five US citizens no longer believe that the Republicans would care about lowering prices.

In contrast to 2022 and 2024, the Democrats are no longer talking about abortion rights, nor are they talking about corrupt members of the government in the White House. Instead, they return to their roots and rhetorically place themselves closer to the side of the little people who had recently run away from them in droves.

This is exactly the fate that now threatens the Republicans, because rarely before have the citizens' economic problems been so directly traceable to the president's actions. He and his party therefore only seem to be able to cling to another Phil Collins classic (“Against all odds”). Loosely translated: »The fact that you are coming back to me defies all probability. But it’s the last chance I can take.”

With us, no one has to pay to be informed. Sounds like a bad business model? It is too. But independent journalism and participation for everyone are more important to us than profit. Journalism still costs money: research, printing and all the people who do it. That's why we depend on you. We need 300,000 euros by the end of the year.

Donate once or regularly, every amount counts. So that nd remains.