Congressional elections USA | Return of the disappointed

Listeners at a rally by the voter rights organization Voto Latino in Texas: Support for Trump is dwindling among Latinos. Photo: Sarah Rice/Getty Images via AFP [M] It's one thing when dreams don't come true. When they even become nightmares, but a completely different one. When Barack Obama was US President, his Democratic Party planned to stay in power for a long time and even expand it. The working class in the north of the country reliably ensured electoral success, while the number of Latinos, i.e. people with Latin American roots, increased in the southern states. Since they voted loyally Democratic, Texas, Florida, Arizona and Nevada were soon to become permanently Democratic states. As is well known, nothing came of it.

First, white workers in the north broke away in 2016, followed in 2024 by large parts of Latinos in the south. Democrats in particular had treated and ignored minorities as a unified and loyal voting bloc, never pursuing policies that truly helped Latinos advance. So they lost support dramatically: While Obama won more than 70 percent of all Latino votes in 2012, Kamala Harris only managed 56 percent in 2024. In Texas, Donald Trump even won a majority among the more conservative Latino community there.

Just two years later, the next countermovement is apparently imminent. The president's approval rating among Latino voters is now just 27 percent. Anyone who assumes that this can be explained by the immigration agency ICE's brutal hunt for people who read as immigrants is making the same mistake as the Democratic leadership in the last decade. In fact, 39 percent approval for Trump's border security policy is still his best figure even among this group. No, the economic situation is also the most important factor in voting decisions for Latinos.

In 2024, they gave Trump a four percentage point lead on economic issues. According to an NBC poll from early October, two-thirds now believe his policies have made their situation worse. Now they see Democrats ahead by 21 points on the same issue. Most recently, Latinos made up about a tenth of the total electorate. Such changes can be decisive in narrow constituencies. "It was a big deal when we voted Republican, and now we feel like it was a total mistake," said 59-year-old Luisa Santiago of Florida in a recent NBC interview. "I'm ashamed because I also persuaded my friends to vote for him."

More than eight in 10 Latinos - an above-average number of whom are small business owners - say inflation and the cost of living are important to their vote. This is followed by healthcare and education. Immigration policy is only in fifth place in the ranking.

Of course, Latino voters express frustration with Trump's harsh deportation policies. Two thirds think the measures went too far. Bobby Pulido, himself Latino, nationally known singer and Democratic candidate in Texas' 15th congressional district between San Antonio and the Mexican border, recently reported in a podcast: "People here live in constant fear of ICE. Sure, the border is now secured. There is no longer chaos there, but now there is chaos on our streets.

Pulido is given a chance to wrest the seat in the House of Representatives that was believed to be safe from the Republicans. But he also prefers to rely on economic arguments: “People don’t like being lied to. Prices were said to be coming down, now diesel costs six dollars a gallon. Many people voted Republican because they wanted to pay less taxes. Now they realize that this policy is bad for their business.

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