Midterms 2026 | The new sobriety

Democratic campaign rally in Cleveland, Ohio, October 24: Polls suggest Democrats are gaining support among younger people. Photo: JEFF SWENSEN/Getty Images via AFP [M] If there is one group whose voting behavior before elections in the USA cannot be predicted even with any degree of accuracy, it is young people. This time around, no one knows how Generation Z will vote in the US midterms. Nevertheless, there are indications that young voters are entering new political territory not only in Europe but also in the USA. And Donald Trump seems particularly concerned about this. Since the outcome of the election is predicted to be very close in many places, Gen Z, which potentially comprises 50 million voters, could well be decisive.

Polls suggest that the opposition Democrats are again preferred by voters under 30 more often than they were two years ago. At that time, an unusually large number of them voted for Trump, 47 percent - and even a clear majority among young men. The Yale University polling institute expects high turnout from Gen Z in next Tuesday's congressional elections, which gives Democrats hope.

But there are also warning voices like that of Rachel Janfaza, founder of the Gen Z research institute The Up and Up. She believes that young people, who rarely vote anyway, are even less likely to go to the polls than usual because of stressful living conditions and disorientation. And being disappointed with Trump does not automatically mean that young Republicans will vote for the Democrats.

A new draconian rhetoric from Trump, who describes the youth uprisings in Europe as "apocalyptic," is warning his own voter base to avoid European conditions at all costs. But surveys and interviews show that young people in the USA are also worried about the future, albeit rather quietly. It's not just the poorest among them who live between hopes and fears of ever gaining a foothold in the middle class. For voters on the threshold of 30, jobs, housing and starting a family appear increasingly insecure. As a result, trust in the institutions is dwindling.

Two years ago, young men of all ethnicities voted for Trump by a 15-point margin, primarily because they thought - through influencers from the "manosphere" like Joe Rogan - that he would prepare a better economic field for them. The Washington Post now quotes 21-year-old Michael Fusella from Florida: Despite his college education, he no longer believes he will ever reach his parents' standard of living. Nevertheless, the activist remains loyal to the Republicans, but expects his party to devote more attention to the issue of affordability.

"Don't get me wrong, I'm as against socialists as anyone else," he says. "But you can't focus the entire election campaign on defeating socialism." Blind loyalty to old ideologies is apparently giving way to a new sobriety. The US Gen Z may not go to the barricades and seems more thoughtful - with many questions about what the conditions are now and how they should be.

On the other side of the political spectrum, there is actually a growing group campaigning for the Democratic Socialists. Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York a year ago acted as an initial spark. Trump, the ICE agency, wars and inflation are grist for their mill. However, the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America was specifically organized around the issues of rent and the cost of living; Issues that now even concern couples who earn $350,000 a year in big cities like New York and San Francisco.

"Young people today - even more clearly than a few years ago - affirm socialism and reject capitalism."

For others, the self-image of belonging to the middle class is becoming increasingly fragile. When you can barely pay your living expenses and at the age of 30 you still live with your parents even though you work full time. When you drive to work in your parents' car but the gas is too expensive. It is a daily struggle with deficits. The only thing that is consoling is that you are not alone with the problems.

After all, Gen Z primarily gets their information via social media. Mamdani was a masterful campaigner in these spheres, and the Republicans are trying to keep up. Like 40-year-old Gabe Evans, who is currently campaigning for the House of Representatives north of Denver. »My campaign basically consists of Generation Z. My campaign manager and almost his entire team belong to them. My head of communications too.” But is that enough? After all, his Democratic opponent Manny Rutinel is 32 years old and can speak directly to his generation without trying to ingratiate himself. The son of a single mother, Latino Rutinel worked at McDonald's as a teenager and donated blood for money to make ends meet.

Aaron Zitner, reporter for the Wall Street Journal, reports growing support for populist politics. Measures in which the government intervenes to help “normal” people at the expense of the elite, investors or large corporations are very popular. "Young people today - even more clearly than a few years ago - affirm socialism and reject capitalism." Trump entered politics after the rise of Occupy Wall Street to prevent exactly this. His interim success is now more in question than ever.

Other media have corporations or billionaires behind them. We have the nd.Genossenschaft and readers like you. That makes us independent and that’s exactly how we want to remain. But it also means: without you the calculation won't work. We need 300,000 euros by the end of the year.

You can donate directly here, one-time or regularly, so that nd stays.