House of Representatives election | Berlin: Red-red-green is not a foregone conclusion

Personally, it should fit between Steffen Krach (SPD), Werner Graf (Greens) and Elif Eralp (Left). Politically, that doesn't mean much. Photo: dpa/Jens Kalaene Actually, the sympathies in the Left Party for the alliance Sahra Wagenknecht split are limited. But when it became apparent late on Sunday evening that the BSW would miss out on entering the House of Representatives, this probably did not spark much enthusiasm among the Left leadership. Because without the left-wing populists in the state parliament, there is enough for a Kenya coalition made up of the CDU, Greens and SPD. For large parts of the election evening, it initially looked as if only a red-green-red coalition would achieve a majority of seats.

It would have been the easiest path for the election winner Elif Eralp and her left if the arithmetic had forced the SPD and the Greens into a left-wing alliance. But now the socialists have to negotiate with parties that know there is an alternative. With losses of 9.4 percent, the CDU is the biggest loser on election night, but is still far from out of the power poker game.

“We are ready to talk to the parties in the middle of society at any time to take responsibility in the interests of our city,” said top candidate Stefan Evers at a press conference on Monday. We are ready for a “stable and effective government”. But they would only have a majority of two votes in the House of Representatives. There are numerous members of both the SPD and the Greens who are opposed to an alliance with the CDU. Such a coalition would hardly be “stable”. Kai Wegner (CDU) had to go to the third round of voting in 2023 to become governing mayor.

Red-Green-Red – in a mirror-image order of the parties compared to the last edition of this alliance from 2016 to 2023 – is likely to be the most likely option. At least for the Greens, that would also be the preferred constellation. “It would be great for Berlin to have a progressive government,” said top candidate Werner Graf before the election in the RBB election arena. The state chairmen Nina Stahr and Philmon Ghirmai confirmed this on election night. The Greens, as was already clear during the election campaign, see themselves as possible mediators between the SPD and the Left. In a quite ironic twist, the lines of conflict in the previous red-green-red governments under Michael Müller and Franziska Giffey (both SPD) mostly ran between the two workers' parties on the one hand and the left-wing liberals on the other.

But for the Social Democrats, who have been reduced to just 22 MPs, the situation is much more complicated. SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach spoke on Monday of a "government mandate" that now lies with the Left Party. “I assume that there will be offers to talk,” said Krach. The – probably outgoing – Economics Senator Franziska Giffey (SPD) even spoke of having to “tolerate” the Left’s election victory. Euphoria sounds different.

A red-green-red coalition would have a majority of 15 votes, while the black-green-red coalition would only have two.

However, it is unlikely that Giffey, who lost her mandate in the election, will still be able to have a say in the coalition. The word of parliamentary group leader Raed Saleh, who spoke out in favor of a left-wing alliance with little ambiguity, carries more weight. “The middle mantra has failed,” said the Spandau politician, who played a central role in many decisions in the last legislature, on Sunday evening. SPD Senate activist Cansel Kiziltepe also spoke out in favor of a Governing Mayor Elif Eralp. She could live with that well, said the Labor Senator on Sunday. According to party circles, there is currently discussion within the SPD right that the SPD could officially go into opposition and support a minority government.

But that doesn't mean a left-wing alliance is a given. Shortly after the first projections, the SPD and the Greens came up with a simple exit strategy for coalition negotiations. "I think it's a very difficult situation to work with a party that is partly or largely anti-Semitic," said SPD federal chairwoman Bärbel Bas in the Berlin explorations. Top candidate Krach agreed that he expects words and not just actions. And similar tones could also be heard from the Greens: There could not be “a ritualized situation where we have the same arguments with this Neukölln district association every few weeks,” said top candidate Werner Graf.

There, on Sunday evening, the next easy excuse was provided for the SPD and the Greens to refuse to form a coalition: Ibrahim Ibrahim was among the numerous guests at the Neukölln Left's election party. A photo shows him arm in arm with Neukölln Bundestag member Ferat Koçak. Ibrahim was active for years as an activist in the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (abbreviated to the English acronym PFLP), which is responsible for dozens of terrorist attacks with hundreds of civilian casualties in Israel. On the PFLP's Arabic website in 2015, Ibrahim was described as a representative of the "mass arm of supporters of the Popular Front in Berlin," and photos show him there at a celebration for a fallen "martyr."

Awareness of the problem in Neukölln is limited. According to the “Morgenpost”, the newly elected Neukölln MP Rouzbeh Taheri called Ibrahim’s presence “unproblematic”. The PFLP is a "left-wing organization," said Taheri about the group that claimed responsibility for a massacre in a synagogue in Jerusalem in 2014.

Not only the future coalition partners, but also the state leadership of the Left Party are not particularly impressed by such failures. Ibrahim in particular is considered persona non grata on the Left outside Neukölln. After the Neukölln Left organized a joint summer festival with the United Palestinian National Committee led by Ibrahim last year, the state party made a decision that seems to be tailored to the veterans of the Palestinian solidarity scene in Berlin. Since then, the usual language has been that alliances with partners “that legitimize or glorify October 7th” will not be tolerated.

However, there is an open window to keep the conflict out of the coalition negotiations. According to Green Party circles, a possible coalition should not depend on the votes of the Neukölln MPs. That would be entirely possible. The Neukölln Left will hold four MPs in the House of Representatives, who can only count on a few allies in the group. A left-wing coalition would have a 15-vote majority. Little consideration would have to be given to the sensitivities of Neukölln residents.

While the dispute over allegations of anti-Semitism could be brushed off relatively easily, negotiations elsewhere face much greater challenges. The SPD and the Left in particular have different positions on the possible expropriation of large housing companies. For the Left Party, it is a project close to the heart, the implementation of which represents a “red line,” as federal chairwoman Ines Schwerdtner put it during the election campaign. The SPD, on the other hand, views the issue negatively. "I'm very sure that it won't work in the end," said Krach on election evening on ARD. The majority of Berliners reject this, said Krach, alluding to a corresponding post-election survey.

How the two sides will come together is currently completely unclear. The Greens support the expropriation, but have made it clear in advance that they do not want to make it a question of principle. It is also unclear whether Krach really speaks for his party. In the past, an SPD state party conference had spoken out in favor of the project. During the current legislative period, parliamentary group leader Raed Saleh tried to at least give the impression that expropriations were being pushed further with the socialization framework law.

Already during the election campaign, Left Party lead candidate Elif Eralp made it clear that one could live with it if only a schedule with concrete steps was initially agreed upon. “The important thing is that this project is tackled from day one,” Eralp told “nd” in August. One can talk about timing and the financial framework. Left veteran Gregor Gysi offered a creative solution in an ARD interview on election evening: The coalition members don't have to agree at all, they could simply hold another referendum on the issue - but this time about a concrete law and not just about an abstract intention.

Even if the party officials come to an agreement among themselves, not everything has been decided. In the run-up to the election, all three parties announced that they wanted to involve their respective bases in the coalition decision. If the Left Party shows itself to be too willing to compromise on expropriation, it could be difficult to convince the numerous new members from activist backgrounds, who make up almost half of the Left supporters in the Berlin regional association. Given the euphoria over the election results, it can be assumed that government opponents will remain a manageable minority at the state party conference scheduled for Friday.

In mirror image, the compromise must also be acceptable for pragmatic SPD supporters. However, according to current plans, only one state party conference will vote on the coalition agreement there. According to party circles, previous basic decisions have deepened the divisions in the party.

A rapid change of government should therefore not be expected. Within the Left Party, the end of the year is mentioned as the deadline for forming a government. There is no need to negotiate a “500-page coalition agreement,” said parliamentary group leader Tobias Schulze. This is also mentioned as a time horizon by the possible coalition partners. Looking under the Christmas tree could be exciting for Berliners.

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