Election victory of the Left in Berlin: young, female, with a high school diploma

The Left has clearly become the strongest force in the Berlin House of Representatives election with 25.7 percent of the votes - Elif Eralp could become the first left-wing governing mayor of Berlin.

A majority of voters also support this, as shown by a representative survey conducted by the Elections Research Group on election day. According to this, 36 percent would vote for Eralp in a direct election. However, only 26 percent are in favor of their competitor Stefan Evers (CDU).

The survey institute's evaluation also shows in which social groups the left was particularly successful. What stands out is that the Left owes its election victory primarily to women and young people. 46 percent of 16 to 24 year olds voted for the Left. The other four parties that made it into the House of Representatives are between 8 and 12 percent in this age group.

Overall, the Left has above-average success among those under 45 compared to the other parties. And for women: While women vote more progressively (28 percent Left, 14 percent AfD), men tend more towards the right (24 percent Left, 18 percent AfD).

A look at the election analysis also shows that the Greens are not entirely wrongly said to be a party for higher earners. Because only 6 percent of the workers who voted voted for the Greens; 25 percent, on the other hand, for the left. Only the extreme right AfD reaches more people in this professional group at 29 percent.

The Social Democrats, in turn, are only elected by 11 percent of their former core clientele. However, the Left is not a pure workers’ party. It achieves similarly high approval ratings among employees and self-employed people, but it performs less well among civil servants.

When it comes to educational qualifications, the Left is particularly successful among people with a high school diploma (32 percent) and university graduates (28 percent). It performs worse among people with a secondary school leaving certificate and intermediate school leaving certificate at 11 and 18 percent respectively - but is still well ahead of the Greens, who perform miserably among these people (4 percent and 6 percent).

The AfD is particularly successful among people with little formal education: 33 percent of voters with a secondary school diploma and 29 percent of those with an intermediate high school diploma voted for them.

According to the election research institute infratest dimap, the Left owes its large vote increase of 13.4 percentage points compared to the 2023 House of Representatives election primarily to 75,000 non-voters who voted for them this time. But the Left also leaned heavily into the progressive camp and gained 96,000 voters who had voted for the Greens and SPD last time. Even 16,000 former CDU voters joined, while 10,000 migrated to the BSW.

The Left was particularly successful in the election on Sunday in the center of Berlin, but constituencies on the outskirts of Treptow-Köpenick, Pankow and Spandau also turned pink in the second vote results. While the CDU did well in the west, the AfD achieved high election results in the east and in parts of Spandau. A small island in Tempelhof-Schöneberg turned green.