Polls before the midterms: Trump's former voters are turning away from him

Polls before the midterms Trump's former voters are turning away from him As of: October 26, 2026 • 10:06 a.m

US President Trump was elected in 2024 by many people who would not otherwise vote for the Republicans. Shortly before the midterm elections, surveys now show that he particularly disappointed these voters.

The word coalition also exists in US politics, but it has a completely different meaning than in Germany. In the 2024 election, the “Trump Coalition” consisted of the social groups that Donald Trump had successfully addressed and with whom he won the presidential election.

Important parts of this coalition have broken off within two years and it has shrunk significantly. At the start of his second term in February 2025, Trump still had 47 percent approval in the Pew Research Center surveys, barely less than his election result in November 2024. Almost two years later, in October 2026, the value fell to 30 percent. More than a third of the “Trump coalition” is disappointed and turns away again. And this disappointment is greatest in the groups that he was able to win over back then.

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In the last presidential election, as in previous elections, Trump achieved a high level of mobilization among Republican core voters: white voters outside of the big cities, conservative and religious people, especially evangelical Christians, not only sympathized with him, they also cast their votes for him in large numbers.

For the first time and unlike 2016, he managed to win the “popular vote”, i.e. the majority of the votes cast. 77.3 million (49.7 percent) voted for Trump, 75 million (48.2 percent) for his then Democratic opponent Kamala Harris.

The remarkable thing about the 2024 election: Trump won decisive votes in groups that do not belong to the classic Republican voter potential. Compared to 2016 and 2020, he was elected significantly more by ethnic minorities, Latinos and, to a lesser extent, by blacks. Both groups remained predominantly democratic. But Trump was able to make significant gains, especially among Latino and black males. And young men overall supported Trump more than before - regardless of skin color.

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Two years later the picture has completely changed. In the polls for the congressional elections, the Republicans are well behind the Democrats and fear for the majority in the House of Representatives, perhaps even in the Senate. According to the latest survey by the Pew Research Center, only 36 percent of respondents want to vote for a Republican candidate in the House of Representatives election, while 44 percent want to vote for Democrats. 15 percent are undecided, five percent lean towards other people who are not affiliated with a party.

This Pew survey is exciting because it asks directly about President Trump's influence on the decision. Only 19 percent see their vote as a vote for Trump, 44 as a vote against him. After all, Trump encourages people to think of him at almost every campaign event, even if he isn't on the ballot.

Among voters who want to vote for a Republican candidate, less than half (48 percent) want their cross to be counted as a vote for Trump. But the counter-mobilization is even stronger. 84 percent of those who intend to vote Democratic also see their decision as a vote against Trump

The disappointment is so broad that it reaches all voter groups in the Trump coalition. But it is by no means the same size in all groups. Those who have turned away the most are those who come from typically democratic backgrounds and who voted for Trump for the first time in 2024 - many Latinos and blacks.

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A closer look at Latinos in particular makes the change in mood clear. In the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump was significantly inferior here. Hillary Clinton had a lead of 38 percentage points in this group in 2016, and Joe Biden had a lead of 25 points in 2020. Trump was able to narrow that gap to just three points in 2024, winning almost half of the votes in this group. Currently only 24 percent want to vote for Republican candidates in November.

According to post-election surveys, Latinos only made up eleven percent of the electorate in 2024, but they make up around 20 percent of the population. The average age is low, many are still growing into voting age. The political influence of this group of voters will grow.

In the 2024 presidential election, in addition to inflation and economic problems, especially among the self-employed, it was also Trump's tough migration policy that convinced Latinos. As people, many of whom were legal immigrants themselves or came from immigrant families who had built a life through hard work, their rejection of illegal migration was particularly clear.

The six states that Trump won from the Democrats in 2024 and with which he was able to achieve victory in the Electoral College included Arizona and Nevada, two states in which Latinos with their high proportion of the population were decisive. As much as many in this group hoped for Trump, they are now disappointed that prices have continued to rise and the family budget has shrunk further.

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The decline among younger people is also clear. This group traditionally votes Democratic with a large majority. Trump was able to reduce his gap among 18 to 29 year olds from 30 points in 2016 to 19 points in 2024.

But in this group, women and men were clearly divided. Young women overwhelmingly voted for Harris and young men for Trump. They played a big role in his electoral successes in the Midwest, in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Here, large sections of the white working class had turned their backs on the Democrats, including many young men. Inflation and the economic situation were important motives, but also Trump's promise to end military operations and wars.

In fact, Trump has started a highly unpopular new war against Iran - one reason why the younger generation has turned away. Only 23 percent of 18 to 29 year olds want to support a Republican candidate in the upcoming elections for the House of Representatives. Approval among young Trump voters in 2024 has virtually halved.

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Elections in the USA have hardly been decided by swing voters for many years. Various studies come to the conclusion that only around five to ten percent of voters are open to switching parties; the majority are firmly tied to one of the two camps.

The majority of the billion-dollar election campaigns aim to mobilize one's own supporters or to demobilize opponents. That's why Trump's 2024 coalition was so remarkable. He had encouraged considerable parts of the actually democratic coalition to change - and had attracted many first-time voters among the young. He has apparently largely squandered this valuable capital.

This topic in the program: BR24 Radio | News | Oct 20, 2026 | 3:21 p.m