Research report: Fossil CO2 emissions are declining slightly

Research report Global Carbon Budget Fossil CO2 emissions are declining slightly As of: November 10, 2026 • 5:01 a.m

The UN climate conference is looking for ways out of fossil fuels. Current figures show: Fossil CO2 emissions are declining slightly. But experts warn that this could only be a temporary effect.

The so-called Global Carbon Budget is an important indicator for climate protection. The research report measures how much carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted worldwide each year. And it takes into account the maximum amount of CO2 that can still be released - before the global climate goals are violated. And the world still emits a lot of CO2: last year alone, a good 38 gigatons from the combustion of coal, oil and gas. This is a slight decrease compared to the previous year.

In 2025, global fossil CO2 emissions had risen by just over one percent. In the previous years, from 2016 to 2025, there was an average increase of almost one percent per year. The researchers at the Global Carbon Budget have compiled data on global CO2 emissions for the 21st time. The 99 research institutions from 21 countries worldwide include the Alfred Wegener Institute, the Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) and the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU).

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From the researchers' point of view, there are essentially two reasons why fossil CO2 emissions are declining slightly for the first time in years: "On the one hand, the expansion of renewable energy sources and electromobility, but also the energy shock caused by the Iran conflict," says Julia Pongratz, professor and chair of physical geography and land use systems at the LMU Munich. Due to the war and the associated closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas became more expensive and demand fell.

However, it is expected that this effect will not last. In order to achieve the Paris climate goals of global warming of below 2 degrees, if possible only 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the pre-industrial era, global CO2 emissions would actually have to fall massively. “We naturally hope that this slight decline in fossil emissions will initiate a trend reversal. That is by no means certain,” says climate researcher Pongratz.

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The effect of the Iran war can also be seen in the individual fossil energy sources: the report records a significant decline of almost two percent in oil consumption and a slight decline in natural gas. Emissions from coal combustion, on the other hand, have increased by 0.6 percent, which, according to scientists, is due to India's increasing need for coal as it expands its economy.

Overall, global energy demand is increasing. According to Judith Hauck, environmental researcher at AWI, if this additional energy were supplied solely from fossil fuels, this would correspond to additional CO2 emissions of 0.8 billion tons. However, almost two thirds of these emissions could be avoided through the expansion of renewable energies - especially solar and wind energy - but also through growing electromobility.

Solar energy is even showing exponential growth. According to the environmental researcher, this expansion, even extrapolated into the coming years, is not enough to cover the ever-growing energy demand. “That means that the expansion of renewable energies and electromobility really needs to be further accelerated in order to get to where we need to be,” said Hauck.

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The Global Carbon Budget also takes into account the emissions that arise from so-called land use change. Above all, it is about deforestation, i.e. when forests are cleared, for example as agricultural land or for construction projects. Worldwide, the resulting emissions have tended to decrease in recent decades - according to climate researcher Julia Pongratz, this is a success of better protection of the rainforest, for example in Brazil.

In the past year, emissions due to deforestation increased noticeably. According to Pongratz, the reason for this is large-scale fires in forests and peatlands in Southeast Asia. Many peatlands there have been drained and forests are being cleared by fires. A very strong “El Niño” is likely to take place this year. This is leading to severe drought in these regions. The fires are spreading - so much that this is noticeable in the emissions balance.

“This is a phenomenon that will probably subside again next year in Indonesia. However, this drought will then continue, typically to South America,” said the climate researcher. “We expect drought again in the Amazon next year and will then have to see how much of an impact that will have on emissions there from agricultural fires.”

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Around half of the emissions emitted globally are absorbed by forests and oceans and therefore do not end up in the atmosphere. But these so-called CO2 sinks are themselves suffering from climate change. According to Julia Pongratz, both land and ocean could “deliver more” if climate change did not counteract this.

In rural areas, drought events in particular mean that less CO2 can be absorbed by forests. Although this CO2 sink is growing through reforestation, "In total, we have already lost around 20 percent of the sink because climate change is now having such a strong impact in large parts of the world," says Pongratz.

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According to the Global Carbon Budget, around 2.1 billion tons of CO2 are currently bound worldwide through afforestation and reforestation. According to the researchers, this is slightly less than the amount of CO2 emitted each year by burning coal, oil and gas in the EU alone. According to the researchers, new CO2 extraction processes, such as the capture of CO2 from the air and subsequent underground storage, have so far only been able to compensate for a fraction of the emissions.

According to the report, the amount of CO2 bound each year corresponds to the global fossil emissions that are emitted in just 30 minutes. In order to achieve the Paris climate target of a maximum of 1.5 degrees of warming, the world is likely to emit 150 billion tons of CO2, according to the Global Carbon Budget. According to the researchers, this carbon budget would be used up in less than four years given current emissions.

This topic in the program: tagesschau.de | COP31 Day Two: Decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels | 11/10/2026 | 05:00 am