Elections in MeckPomm and Berlin: Bad prospects

Just because something looks better doesn't mean it's good. This applies to the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania scheduled for September 20th. And that applies to the election for the Berlin House of Representatives, which is taking place at the same time. The fact that the polls in both countries show a majority for a center-left alliance doesn't initially mean anything.

The elections in Saxony-Anhalt have once again shown that surveys can only be trusted to a limited extent. Nobody seriously doubted that the AfD would win the race. But who had the Wagenknecht party BSW on their radar? To put it bluntly: the Magdeburg quake could at least be repeated in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Here, too, there is a risk that it will become difficult to govern. Sure, the SPD is heading for a strong result for once. Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig is popular. The fact that she is constantly campaigning against the unpopular reforms of the unpopular federal government contributes to this. It just doesn't change the fact that there could still be an ugly election outcome.

One possibility: Boosted by the result in Saxony-Anhalt, the extreme right scores its next triumph. Another: Schwesig's SPD continues to catch up in the last few meters, but all partners necessary for a stable left-of-center government are shaved.

The taz is an independent, left-wing and opinionated daily newspaper. We have been arguing in our comments, essays and debate texts since the taz was founded in 1979. We often cannot and do not want to agree on an opinion. That's why you'll find some completely opposing positions here - all part of the very broad left-wing spectrum of opinions.

Since the Saxony-Anhalt election, the Socialists have been posting portraits of Schwesig all over the country with the slogan “The woman against blue”. Schwesig himself says: “I ask for the votes of everyone who wants to prevent the AfD from taking power in MV.” Me, me, me. Schwesig almighty. But what if the left weakens again? In addition, the Greens could fail at the five percent hurdle, especially since they are not fueled by a “Tactically Vote” campaign like in Saxony-Anhalt. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, too, the BSW could enter parliament - and then only accept a non-partisan Prime Minister from Sahra Wagenknecht's grace. Then that was it with stable conditions.

In the city state of Berlin, things are different. In surveys, the CDU, Left, AfD and Greens are so close to each other that the current water levels they excitedly report are largely useless.

After the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, there is a threat of an AfD government for the first time. The taz reports what is at stake - and who is now defending democracy. All texts about the series can be found here.

Only two results seem reasonably certain. On the one hand, the exhausted long-term ruling party, the SPD, will probably take a big hit in this case. On the other hand, as in the previous Berlin elections, there should still be enough for a red-green-red majority. It is also quite possible that the left, with top candidate Elif Eralp, will become the strongest force in the center-left camp. Eralp also leaves no doubt that she wants to become Berlin's first left-wing head of government.

It is more than uncertain that this will happen. This is not just because the SPD is opposed to the left's favorite topic, the expropriation of real estate companies. More seriously, Eralp's party has shown that it is unable to get its anti-Semitism problem under control. The appearance of a rapper chanting fantasies of annihilation against Israel at a party event, celebrated by those present, is only the tip of the iceberg. The biggest problem with the left is the left itself.

Parts of the regional association are dominated by the obsession that anything below their maximum demands is treason. And anyone who enters into a coalition with the SPD and the Greens is a traitor. The Left has to be “the only opposition to the dismantling of the welfare state, rearmament and militarization,” a leading representative of the Neukölln district association recently told Wagenknecht. She did not say how “dismantling of the welfare state, rearmament and militarization” could be prevented by shouting on the opposition bench. But obviously it's not about preventing things, but about being right in the original German way. At this point, the Fundi wing of the capital's left is closer to the BSW than it realizes. The only thing missing is that this side also calls for a non-partisan carnival prince.

What would remain: a fragile alliance made up of a backward-looking CDU, the Greens, which are particularly left-wing in Berlin and therefore particularly incompatible, and a quarreling SPD. Thanks for nothing.