Israel after the Knesset election: Limited similarities

David says the next government coalition should be formed without Arabs. “Only a coalition with the Arabs will ensure that the opposition can pass the laws they promised,” says Ben Prize. Both voted for opposition parties in Israel's October 27 election: Prize, the center-left Democrats; David the conservative-right party Israel Beitenu. He only tells the taz his first name; his voting decision should remain somewhat private.

Both meet the taz in the liberal metropolis of Tel Aviv, both have voted for parties from the opposition camp - but that's where the similarities end. Because the anti-Netanyahu camp is above all that: against the still incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Beyond that, the similarities are rather limited.

The anti-Netanyahu camp includes: the Democrats Party, chaired by Jair Golan. The party advocates cooperation with Arab-Israeli society and a two-state solution with the Palestinians. Golan also clearly criticized the war in Gaza and Israel's actions towards Arabs in general - long before October 7, 2023, when Palestinian militias invaded southern Israel.

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Over 1,200 people died and over 250 were kidnapped in the Gaza Strip and held there for over two years. In Israel - where the right and left are less concerned with economic problems and more focused on the issue of security - the Democrats are on the left fringe within the mainstream. According to the counting results so far, the party won a total of eight seats for the Knesset.

Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Beitenu party also belongs to the anti-Netanyahu camp. For a long time it was considered a party of Russian-speaking Israelis or Israelis who came from the countries of the former Soviet Union. Lieberman himself was born in the Soviet Union and immigrated to Israel in the 1970s. Today the party is broader; tends to collect the votes of secular people who want a tough stance in the Middle East conflict. Instead of a two-state solution, he declared that parts of the West Bank should be annexed to Israel. According to the count so far, the party won 7 mandates in the elections last Tuesday.

Only from this comparison does it become clear why the anti-Netanyahu camp will have difficulty forming a coalition. The attitude of the two parties towards the Palestinians is opposite: the Democrats focus on negotiations and ultimately Palestinian ownership. Lieberman called for more settlements in the West Bank and a dissolution of the Palestinian Authority.

The attitude towards the Palestinians with Israeli passports and their political representatives in the country also varies: the Democrats have explicitly stated that they are willing to work with them. Israel Beitenu, in turn, rules this out.

The Zionist opposition bloc - which, in addition to the Democrats and Israel Beitenu, also includes the Yashar party of Gadi Eisenkot and the B'Jachad party of Naftali Bennet and Jair Lapid - won 48 seats in the election. And is therefore well below the necessary Knesset majority of 61 seats. The Israeli parliament has a total of 120 seats. According to the count so far, the pro-Netanyahu camp has won 53 seats. And is therefore also below the majority.

19 seats remain. And according to the counts at the time of going to press, these have won the two Arab electoral lists. 12 mandates went to the more secular and Arab-nationalist Joint List, seven to the Ra'am. It was once the core party of conservative Muslim voters, but has undergone a liberalization process in recent years and placed a Jewish candidate, Joav Segalovich, in second place on its list in the most recent election.

Overall, just over 20 percent of people in Israel speak Arabic as their native language; Among them, around 80 percent are Muslims, Christians and Druze form the minority within the minority. They are Israeli citizens - but many would continue to call themselves Palestinians almost 80 years after the founding of the state of Israel, which was accompanied by violence.

Among more left-wing analysts and journalists in Israel, a narrative is emerging as the votes are evaluated: an opposition coalition - Zionist and Arab - is obvious. The Zionist bloc just has to want it. Haretz journalist Noa Landau, for example, writes: What is stopping the bloc from “enacting change” is “cowardice and racism”.

But it's not quite that simple. An insider from the Joint List confirms to the taz what politicians from the list have repeatedly said publicly: government participation is not currently on the table. However, they are prepared to support an anti-Netanyahu minority government from within the opposition; to vote with her on certain projects and thus achieve majorities in the Knesset. How stable and long-lasting such a construct would be is questionable. Majorities would have to be sought for every resolution.

The other Arab party, Ra'am, was already in an Israeli coalition, in the "Government of Change" 2021 to 2022. Before the election, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas said he hoped to participate in the government again. Only as a coalition member can you raise the problems of your own electorate higher on the agenda, said Abbas.

Analyst Elisabeth Tsurkov writes on X that the Arab parties are more pragmatic than ever; Netanyahu's current right-wing to right-wing extremist government has clearly had a negative impact on the lives of the Arab population. “The previous ‘red lines’ of the Arab parties will disappear,” she writes, if the opposition bloc “wants change more than clinging to racist dogmas.”

Tel Alviv voter Ben Prize explains why he chose the Democrats: They are “the only party that will reverse judicial reform and restore the rule of law in Israel.” He is a convinced party member. Also that a unity government of the Zionist opposition bloc with Netanyahu's Likud would continue to prevent an independent investigation into October 7, 2023. And that such a unity government – ​​as is now being discussed after the election – cannot bring about any change.

David, a voter for the right-wing conservative Israel Beitenu party, sees such a unity government as a good option. Politics in Israel, he says, must benefit the entire country - not just individual population groups, such as the Arab parties for their Arab voters.

Many opposition voters would probably, like David, vote against a coalition with the Arab parties. Because within the bloc, most people voted for the more right-wing parties. Jashar, B'Jachad and Israel Beitenu together have 40 seats; the left Democrats on 8 pieces.

Will the opposition bloc be able to pull itself together? How will they decide – for Netanyahu or for the Arab parties?

What is clear so far is that the similarities in content, if they are based primarily on the aversion to the politician Netanyahu, end quite quickly. And that this is only partially conducive to collaboration. It is also clear: 67 of the 120 seats in the Knesset went to parties from the anti-Netanyahu camp. A large proportion of people voted against “business as usual” and for change. What this should look like and who can participate in it is now being negotiated.