The UN peacekeeping mission in Western Sahara ends after a US veto. While Morocco can hope to consolidate its territorial claims and control, the Sahrawis' fight for independence is made more difficult. – A comment from Fynn Weber.

On Friday, the extension of the mandate of the UN peacekeeping mission failed in the UN Security CouncilMINURSO(United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara). The MINURSO mission had monitored the ceasefire between Morocco and the Polisario Front for the past 35 years and was supposed to prepare a referendum on the future of the region.

After theextensionThe mission has been decided repeatedly in recent years without further discussions. This year, the USA introduced a draft resolution which intended to make the Moroccan autonomy plan the basis for the negotiations. This would have fundamentally changed the political orientation and goal of the mission. Russia vetoed the US draft.

Russia justifies the veto by saying that the US draft suggests a political solution that favors Morocco's interests and undermines the Sahrawis' right to self-determination. Russia introduced its own draft resolution that proposed an extension of the mission without further changes. However, this failed with only three votes in favor, one against from the USA and eleven abstentions.

Since no agreement could be reached in the UN Security Council, the MINURSO mandate expired on October 31st. The first steps have been underway since SundayProcessingthe mission. A small UN unit is currently organizing the withdrawal of soldiers and the dismantling of the infrastructure.

“Sahara libertad, Polisario vencerá” – 50 years of armed liberation struggle in Western Sahara

Ongoing liberation struggle of the Polisario Front

To understand the background of the UN mission, one must first look at the history of Western Sahara. The colonial occupation of the region began in 1884, when the major European powers at the BerlinAfrica Conferencedivided large parts of the African continent among themselves. Spain secured control over Western Sahara and parts of Morocco. The Spanish state ruled there for over 90 years.

After Spain became a Sahrawifreedom movementThe Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia al Hamra and Rio de Oro, or Frente Polisario for short, was founded in 1973. Their goal is to overcome colonial heteronomy and create an independent Sahrawi state. A short time later, the Polisario Front took up armed struggle against the Spanish occupiers.

When Spain largely withdrew from North Africa in 1976, Morocco and Mauritania divided Western Sahara between themselves. The Polisario Front continued the liberation struggle and proclaimed the Saharan Arab Democratic Republic on February 27, 1976. As a result of the conflict, large parts of the Sahrawi population fled to Algeria, where they still live in refugee camps today.

While the Polisario Front was able to make peace with Mauritania, the fight against Morocco continued until a ceasefire was agreed in 1991 as part of the MINURSO mission. This was intended to open the diplomatic path for a referendum on the region's independence.

After Morocco prevented the implementation and expanded its own control in the region, the Polisario Front resumed the armed struggle for self-determination and independence in 2020.

Western Sahara: 50 years of declaration of independence

Morocco sees itself strengthened

Morocco considers Western Sahara to be part of the kingdom and calls it its southern province. In 2007, the royal family presented an autonomy plan that provides for Western Sahara to be granted limited self-government rights within the Moroccan state, while control of key political issues remains with the Moroccan government. Complete independence for Western Sahara is not envisaged, which is why the Polisario Front rejects the autonomy plan.

It's not just about territorial claims. Western Sahara has significant deposits of phosphate and other resources. Controlling the region also brings economic benefits for Morocco.

The government in Rabat has been pursuing the goal of having control of Western Sahara internationally recognized for years and has already achieved some success. More and more states are supporting the autonomy plan, which is now considered the basis for UN discussions. The dissolution of the MINURSO mission now meets Morocco's goal: already welcomed after the failure of the extensionRabatthe end of the mission and called for the prompt withdrawal of UN personnel.

USA supports Morocco

The US has supported Morocco's territorial claims since the US presidencyDonaldTrumpIn 2020, Morocco officially recognized its rule over the entire Western Sahara. The recognition by the USA was accompanied by the signing of the Abraham Accords, which provides for the establishment of diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel.

However, there are also geopolitical and economic interests behind the support. The US government is interested in expanding its influence in North Africa. Morocco acts as an important partner of the USA in the region. Both states work closely together militarily, among other things, and Morocco implements US interests in North Africa.

The most recently introducedDraft resolutionThe USA should make the Moroccan autonomy plan the basis of the UN mandate. This would further push the goal of a referendum into the background, which would benefit Morocco's interests.

Delegation in Western Sahara: “One reason for the silence of many Western countries is their own complicity”

Parts of Europe also support Morocco

In recent years, some European states have also announced their support for the Moroccan autonomy plan. In addition to economic interests, the countries are particularly concerned about cooperation in migration control.

TheSpanish governmentIn 2022, declared the autonomy plan to be the most realistic basis for a solution to the conflict in Western Sahara. The main reasons behind Spain's position are Spain's history as a former colonial power in the region, as well as its close economic and security policy relationship with Morocco. For example, Morocco can exert political pressure on Spain through the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.

French President EmmanuelMacrondeclared in 2024 that he expressly supported Morocco's territorial claims.

Although the federal government does not officially recognize Moroccan sovereignty, there has always been public support for the autonomy plan. During a visit to Rabat in 2022, for example, the then Foreign Minister saidAnnalena BaerbockSupport for the Moroccan project.

Mass rush to Ceuta: Migration as a means of pressure between Morocco and Spain

Russia's relationship with Algeria

However, Russia's veto was not just about defending the Sahrawi people's right to self-determination. Also the relationship withAlgeriaand the desire to gain more influence in North Africa play an important role. Algeria is one of Russia's closest partners on the African continent. The countries have maintained economic and military relationships for decades, which they have recently further expanded and intensified.

Algeria has supported the Polisario Frente since its founding and provides protection and accommodation to Sahrawi refugees in the Tindouf region. The Algerian government publicly supports the Sahrawi people's right to self-determination and calls for an independent state.

At the same time, Algeria has been in competition with Morocco for years. Expanding Moroccan control over Western Sahara would weaken Algeria's regional influence. It is not far off that Russia has an interest in supporting and enforcing Algeria's demands in order to secure its own influence in North Africa and to be able to assert itself against Washington.

End of the UN mission – a review

Because the UN mission will not be continued, one of the few international observation structures in Western Sahara will no longer exist. This makes it more difficult to document military conflicts in the region. The loss of observation could further shift the existing balance of power in Morocco's favor.

The results of the MINURSO mandate are sobering anyway: since 1991, the mission was supposed to monitor the ceasefire and prepare a referendum on independence. But after 35 years, the referendum was not implemented. Instead, Morocco managed to further consolidate its own control in Western Sahara and the Polisario Front's armed struggle resumed.

The extent to which the mission contributed to the realization of the Sahrawis' right to self-determination remains unclear.

“Sahara libertad, Polisario vencerá”

Just because the UN mandate was not extended does not mean the conflict over Western Sahara is over. For the Sahrawis, the end of the mission initially means a further deterioration in the already tense situation.

While international observation falls away and the major powers try to assert their geopolitical interests against each other, Morocco can further expand its control in Western Sahara. At the same time, the Polisario Front is sticking to its demand for self-determination even after decades of failed negotiations. As long as the Sahrawis are denied the opportunity to decide their own future, the conflict will remain unresolved.

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