Efforts for independence: The collapse of the United Kingdom is not (yet) imminent

The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland met in Cardiff on Monday to discuss the future of their countries. They attended the meeting in their capacity as chairmen of their respective parties.

At the meeting, John Swinney from the Scottish National Party (SNP), Rhun ap Iorwerth from Plaid Cymru (Welsh Party) and Michelle O'Neill from Ireland's Sinn Féin (We Ourselves) signed a joint statement affirming their countries' right to self-determination. For them it is clear that Westminster has no right to block democratic decisions about the future of individual countries. In this context, they called on the British government to prepare and facilitate constitutional changes for the three nations.

For the first time, the governments of the three constituent nations are being led by parties that are questioning the relationship with Westminster and are calling for change. Party leaders declared on Monday that “the time of Westminster […] is coming to an end.” Until then, they are relying on closer cooperation in areas such as the economy and energy and on rapprochement with the EU.

Nevertheless, the goals of the individual parties differ significantly. The SNP is betting on a new Scottish independence referendum, while Plaid Cymru wants to achieve more stability in Wales first. In Northern Ireland the question is more about potential reunification with the Republic of Ireland.

To understand the new push, one must understand the current situation within Britain. The United Kingdom consists of four nations: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Since the late 1990s, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have had their own parliaments and governments.

In the course of this “devolution”, political power was to be decentralized and certain responsibilities were given to the states. However, the key political decisions and questions will continue to be discussed and decided in Westminster.

In recent years the relationship between state governments and the central British government has come under increasing pressure. A driving factor was Brexit: While the United Kingdom as a whole voted for the exit, large parts of the population in Scotland and Northern Ireland were against leaving the EU. However, here too the situation differs in the individual sub-nations, for example large parts of Wales were in favor of Brexit, while in Northern Ireland it was primarily about border controls in the context of the Good Friday Agreement.

But the domestic political crises have also weakened the trust of parts of the country in the British government. In the last ten years there have already been seven prime ministers who have failed to lead the country out of the crisis. After the Conservative Party ruled the country for 14 years, it was hoped that the Labor Party's coming to power would bring about an improvement in the country. But the Labor Party has not managed to free the country from political instability either. The prevailing instability and the growing strength of the fascist Reform UK party are making government leaders question how long the status quo can continue.

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The independence movement is currently at its furthest in Scotland. In a 2014 independence referendum, 55 percent voted against independence and 44 percent for it. Since then the political situation in Scotland has changed. Brexit in particular became a central argument for Swinney's party: although the majority of Scotland voted to remain in the EU, the decision in Westminster forced them to leave the EU.

Even after this year's general election in Scotland, the SNP remained the strongest party and has therefore been able to demonstrate consistent strength for five legislative periods. However, the declared goal of an absolute majority, which was part of the plan for a new independence referendum, failed. Reform UK, for example, also managed to secure 17 seats in parliament, which shows that society is not united behind the SNP and that the shift to the right in British politics is also extending to the north.

The country is still very divided on the question of independence. A recent poll showed 51 percent for the independence camp and 47 percent against. This means that the independence movement is currently in the lead, but cannot demonstrate that a stable majority supports the effort.

The SNP has been calling for a second referendum for years. The decision as to whether this can take place does not rest solely with Edinburgh. The British government must agree to such a vote. The current Labor Prime Minister Andy Burnham has currently ruled out a second referendum until a majority consensus can be seen in the country. Swinney repeatedly brings up the vote in conversations with Burnham.

In Northern Ireland the aspirations are different. Sinn Féin does not demand independence for Northern Ireland but rather reunification with the Republic of Ireland. There has been a defined process for reunification since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998: If the British Minister for Northern Ireland comes to the conclusion that the majority of the population supports reunification, a referendum must be held.

But the political mood in Northern Ireland is still a long way from that at the moment. Recent polls showed that just 35 percent of the population were in favor of unification with Ireland, while 50 percent were against it.

Politically, the question of unification has nevertheless become more important. Sinn Féin is the strongest force in Northern Ireland and has Michelle O’Neill as First Minister. However, according to the Good Friday Agreement, she must share power with her deputy from the opposition.

Her deputy Emma Little-Pengelly from the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) rejects unification with Ireland. For example, she criticized O'Neill's participation in the Cardiff meeting. In a social media post, she wrote: "Let me be very clear: Michelle O'Neill is not traveling to this 'summit' as First Minister. She has no authority whatsoever to sign anything at such a 'summit' [...] as First Minister of Northern Ireland."

A recent statement by Donald Trump during his visit to Ireland also attracted attention when he declared: “I would very much like to see [Ireland] united.” He is convinced that this has to happen sooner or later. However, Westminster is sticking to its current stance and the Good Friday Agreement.

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In Wales, the independence movement is comparatively less developed, which is also due to the country's historically much closer ties to England. Nevertheless, the political situation has changed fundamentally with the recent elections. The social democratic Plaid Cymru became the strongest force in the Senedd, the Welsh parliament, for the first time. This marked a break in Labour's political dominance since the founding of the Welsh Parliament. As in Scotland, Reform UK became the second strongest force here too.

Although Plaid Cymru is seeking independence for Wales, First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth has spoken out against a referendum in the current legislature until 2030. He believes Wales are not ready yet. His next steps are to strengthen Wales both politically and economically and make it more self-sufficient.

His assessment corresponds to the mood among the population. In recent polls, around 68 percent were against independence from the United Kingdom. However, there is a clear demographic difference that should be emphasized here: approval among those under 45 is over 50 percent, while people over 65 are more likely to vote against independence.

The meeting primarily shows that the relationship between the British government and the individual countries is under tension. The governing parties are dissatisfied with the political situation and are convinced that Westminster does not sufficiently take the interests of their countries into account.

There is a desire for change and more political independence. The current advances and the positive development of the independence movements are primarily in the context of a crisis-ridden British government and economy.

Nevertheless, the starting position in the three countries is quite different: While Scotland is divided on the question of independence, in the other two countries there is a lack of a majority for fundamental change. A collapse of the United Kingdom is therefore not imminent. The question of self-determination and political autonomy will continue to concern Westminster in the coming years.