Federal Government | Merz is looking for support before the test of strength

Chancellor Friedrich Merz invites the CDU presidium to a formal meeting on Sunday. Photo: Michael Kappeler/dpa Next Sunday will be a crucial date for Friedrich Merz. After the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the House of Representatives election in Berlin, the CDU presidium is scheduled to meet in the evening for a formal meeting at the party headquarters. Unlike previous election follow-ups, the committee should be as fully represented as possible. It's about the results - and therefore also about the question of what happens next with the Chancellor and CDU chairman. Further meetings of the CDU's top committees are planned for Monday.

Before the crucial meeting of the CDU presidium, Merz is now receiving surprisingly demonstrative support from the federal states. The eight CDU prime ministers have issued a joint statement against speculation about the Chancellor's political future. »People can trust that we will address their problems. As Prime Ministers, we want and will make our contribution together with the Chancellor," says a joint statement available to the German Press Agency.

It continues: »Political Germany needs stability now more than ever. In this situation, what is now important is the unity, the energy and a clear course of the German Christian Democracy." The declaration lists three basic beliefs: "The need for stability in Germany also with a view to stability in Europe"; “The CDU Germany is ready to work with all democratic forces”; "The path to people's new trust in Christian Democracy leads through listening and political action, not through personnel discussions." The statement comes a few days before the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, in which poor results are expected for the CDU.

Other important parts of the party and the Union faction are also demonstratively supporting the Chancellor. Union parliamentary group leader Thorsten Frei said he was sure that Merz would remain party and government leader after the state elections. The group is behind him.

CSU boss Markus Söder also expects broad support for Merz. Söder recently declared that the CSU would not attempt to overthrow the chancellor, but at the same time left it open how the CDU itself would deal with the question. It is noticeable that Söder did not sign the declaration, as it is otherwise always emphasized that the CDU and CSU belong together. “Der Spiegel” explains that Söder was not asked to sign the statement, but was simply informed about it.

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) emphasizes that the coalition has the will to overcome the current phase together and implement the upcoming reforms under the leadership of Merz. Demonstrative support comes from large parts of the CDU. Hesse's Prime Minister Boris Rhein is calling for decisive action and reforms instead of a personnel discussion. Gitta Connemann, chairwoman of the SME Union, points out that reforms are politically difficult and that Merz is still sticking to the chosen course.

CDU deputy leader Silvia Breher also warns against internal debates about an exchange of heads. And the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania CDU top candidate Daniel Peters also opposes the personnel debate. The deputy chairman of the Union parliamentary group, Matthias Middelberg, had already stated that he continued to believe in Merz. Another Union Chancellor would ultimately have to struggle with the same problems when it comes to voting within the government, he argues.

This creates a remarkable picture before Sunday: Criticism of the Chancellor has by no means disappeared in view of the election debacle in Saxony-Anhalt and poor poll numbers, but it is now opposed by several prominent voices who do not see a change in leadership as a solution. At least that is what they are communicating before the upcoming elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin next Sunday.

What exactly this joint declaration by the eight CDU prime ministers means and how far it goes is completely open. It has at least become unlikely that other prominent front-row critics will present themselves as an alternative to Merz after the expected defeat on September 20th.

One possibility would be that the declaration is simply an electoral maneuver for the CDU state associations in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin to feign stability. What speaks for this is a reference from the CDU to the "Spiegel", according to which Söder's absence from the statement is explained by the fact that the elections only affect CDU state associations.

What speaks against this is that the initiative is said to have come from the Rhineland-Palatinate regional association, which always focuses on stability and balance, and the new Rhineland-Palatinate head of government, Gordon Schnieder. He had a falling out with Merz during the personnel castling in the summer because the Chancellor had thrown his brother Patrick Schnieder out of the office of Transport Minister and the cabinet, but again seems to be more interested in stability than in settling outstanding scores within the party.

In addition, the two opponents for the chancellorship in the event of the fall of the chancellor, Wüst and Söder, would make themselves untrustworthy and damage themselves if they changed their position again after the end of the election campaign in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin - less than a week after this declaration - and openly appeared as an alternative to the chancellor. Even if Söder did not sign, he himself publicly demanded the content of the declaration several times. In addition, his potential allies from the East German regional associations have signed.

The statement could also be a sign of the CDU's internal stalemate between the rival camps around the liberal-conservative pragmatist from North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst, and the right-wing conservative Bavarian Markus Söder, as neither side would be able to exchange Merz without being blocked by the other side. Wüst stands for a pragmatic Merkel path and has the West German CDU state associations behind him, although the timing of the upcoming state elections in his state is unfavorable for any chancellor plans, and Söder seems to represent the East German state associations and right wing.

The Saxon Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer recently appeared alongside Söder at the CSU retreat in Munich and, in addition to praising Söder, demanded that “this CSU gene is needed in this current phase”. Kretschmer, alongside the now former Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, Sven Schulze, and the Prime Minister of Thuringia, Mario Voigt, took an offensive stance against Merz and called for the end of the "firewall" and the continuation of the so-called pension at 63. Söder also declared that the "firewall" had failed and called for a "fairness check" for the planned reforms, which he would like to implement in principle.

»People can trust that we will address their problems. As Prime Ministers, we want and will make our contribution to this together with the Chancellor.”

The statement could also be a sign that the possible successors just don't want to damage themselves in the shambles that Merz would leave behind. Various people in the Union pointed out several times that they would face the same problems with a new chancellor

It is also unclear what concessions Merz had to make to pay for this public support from the Prime Minister before the CDU Presidium meeting on Sunday. A deal could have been made with Merz that he would push through the unpopular reforms, but would not run again or give up the party leadership or something similar.

However, this would raise the question of what the SPD will say about the whole thing, which will be made into a bogeyman and culprit as the Union's rescue attempt continues, as it wants to renegotiate the desired reforms, as well as parts of the Union itself. After this act of pulling together, the Union is now likely to appear even less willing to compromise with its coalition partner. Calls for Bärbel Bas to resign from Christian von Stetten, chairman of the middle class parliamentary group in the Union faction, caused discontent in the coalition.

The fact that Merz sees the domestic situation as a priority is shown by his decision not to travel to the UN general debate in New York next week. Merz was originally supposed to speak to the general assembly there on Wednesday. Now he should stay in Berlin because of his necessary presence.

This means that Sunday's executive committee meeting is likely to become one question above all: Has the Union actually rallied behind Merz and will it grimly continue the recent rallying process behind Merz despite the catastrophic results to be expected? Or is Sunday more about stabilizing the Union, while Merz has long since been cut off internally and only acts as an unpopular lightning rod to the outside world who is trying to push through the reforms? Has Merz already lost all power within the party and must take into account the pressure of the two competing wings around Wüst and especially Söder as well as the East German associations towards his coalition partner? 

Either way, a rift has gone through the Union, along the East German CDU state associations and the Bavarian CSU on the one hand and the West German CDU state associations on the other.

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