The CDU is in a serious leadership crisis. If the party does poorly again in the elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on Sunday, Friedrich Merz's days as chancellor will likely be numbered. Thomas Stark comments on why a change at the top of the government is not enough.

If the eight CDU prime ministers draw up a joint written statement to support the Chancellor, the situation must be serious: “Political Germany needs stability now more than ever,” it saysshort text, which was published by the German Press Agency. “The path to people’s new trust in Christian Democracy” also leads “through listening and political action, not through personnel discussions.”

The Prime Ministers are also trying to build trust and promise change: "People can trust that we will tackle their problems. As Prime Ministers, we want and will make our contribution to this together with the Federal Chancellor."

CDU circles discuss change of power

The letter stands in stark contrast to numerous press reports about the mood within the CDU within the party shortly before two important state elections next Sunday. TheARDreported on September 15th of a “divided mood” in the party and parliamentary group. Some members of the Union are now convinced that the Union, with Friedrich Merz at the helm, will no longer be able to get out of its low point in the polls. The Chancellor’s support is “crumbling,” according to ARD’s analysis.

Die Zeit had previously published under the heading “Operation Chancellor Overthrow“reported that influential party circles – including the CDU prime ministers – were discussing the possibilities of an orderly transfer of power at the top of the federal governmentHandelsblatton Monday described a “decline in power” by Friedrich Merz. For him, “it could be over after just 16 months”. What still speaks in favor of the Chancellor is that “there is no Plan B in the party”.

Lobbyists, agitators and austerity politicians: Merz is restructuring the government after Spahn's resignation

The debate did not come out of nowhere and had been building up for months. The reason for this was persistently poor survey results for the federal government, the Union and Merz personally. After the Chancellor dismissed his transport minister under disgraceful conditions at the end of July, the mood in parts of the party was briefly threatenedto boil over. Violent criticism was unleashed throughout the summer on Merz's leadership style, his personnel policy, his communication and thepolitical resultsthe joint federal government with the SPD.

The straw that broke the camel's back was thisState election in Saxony-Anhalton September 6th, in which the CDU lost almost 20 percentage points and slipped to 17.2 percent. The AfD triumphed with 43.8 percent and could now lead a state government for the first time. Apparently, despite previous surveys, this result completely surprised many in the CDU.

Showdown on Sunday evening?

The disaster for the CDU could continue on Sunday in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The youngestSurveyssee the Union there at between 6 and 7 percent. Even the CDU's departure from the Schwerin state parliament now appears possible. InBerlinThe party is at around 20 percent and is in a neck-and-neck race with the Left for first place. But that would also be a significant decline compared to the result from 2023.

State elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: uniformity or fascist ideology?

Merz has already invited the members of the CDU presidium to the Konrad Adenauer House in Berlin on Sunday evening. It is said that the Chancellor wants to fight for power. But even if the CDU stays in the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and becomes the strongest force in Berlin, things are likely to be tight, writes DasHandelsblattciting leading CDU members: “For many people, the impression has become solidified: ‘It won’t work anymore.’ The Chancellor has not yet been able to explain what his plan is or where the party should follow him.”

Against the background of this reporting, the CDU Prime Minister's letter of support can probably be seen as a desperate maneuver before the elections on Sunday. With Hendrik Wüst from North Rhine-Westphalia and Boris Rhein from Hesse, two of them are considered possiblesuccessortraded by Merz.

Another candidate is the Bavarian food influencer and Prime Minister Markus Söder from the CSU. The sister party of the CDU also officially supports Merz. Söder's statement in the "Bild" that the CSU would not overthrow the Chancellor, but that he could not speak for the CDU, was also seen as a hidden offer: "In other words: He wants the CDU to call him," quoted thatHandelsblattan anonymous Union MP.

The fall of the Chancellor does not mean an end to the social attacks

It is not yet clear how the SPD would position itself in the event of a palace revolt in the Konrad Adenauer House. However, none of the government parties are likely to have an interest in new elections, which would suggest a continuation of the coalition under a new leader.

Thought games are also circulating, such as Merz throwing out Labor Minister and SPD leader Bärbel Bas - an alleged plan within the CDU about which theFocusreported. However, this move would almost certainly result in the SPD leaving the government and was described as “madness” by a CDU strategist to Die Zeit.

Government argues about compulsory certification: Labor Minister Bas questions compromise

In any case, a separation from the SPD would not be absolutely necessary for the Union: Despite cautious calls from the Social Democrats for corrections to the federal government's planned reforms, there is no indication that they will push for a radical change in the course of rearmament and the attacks on workers' rights and the welfare state.

Many people in the working population will probably get a certain satisfaction if Merz has to vacate his chair. With arrogant statements, he has repeatedly managed to antagonize not only employees such as those in the health system (“beneficiaries”), but also his political friends who would have liked to get votes from them. No worker will shed a tear after the author of the book “Dare More Capitalism”. However, the end of Merz's chancellorship does not mean an end to the necessary struggles against the federal government's reform plans, because these will continue in the post-Merz era.

The postMerz in crisis: Will the CDU overthrow its chancellor?appeared firstperspective.