State elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: uniformity or fascist ideology?

A red-red government made up of the SPD and the Left Party currently governs Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MV). In the last state election in 2021, the SPD achieved a clear majority with 34 seats.

However, the polls for the coming election currently indicate an election victory for the AfD. Similar to the previous state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is also very popular in MV. With poll numbers of around 36 percent, the party does not seem to be quite as strong as in Saxony-Anhalt, but the coalition negotiations are likely to be very difficult - especially in the context of the CDU's decision to be incompatible with the Left Party.

Overall, the state elections in the northeast are a little underwhelming, as the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin, which are also scheduled to take place in September, have more nationwide significance. Individual headlines still break through again and again, but the focus is more on the election campaign than on the content of the parties.

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The withdrawal of Left Party direct candidate Daniel Trepsdorf recently caused a stir. In mid-August he announced that he would not run in the same constituency as SPD Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig. With a view to a possible AfD election victory, it is important to him that his potential voters choose his competitor from the SPD instead.

Trepsdorf has no real losses as a result of this maneuver. In the last election he only came fourth with 9.8 percent of the vote and he is unlikely to have any hopes of a direct mandate in this year's state election either. However, a victory for Schwesig would make his party's continued participation in the state government more likely. By “sacrificing” his candidacy, he also gained greater media attention, which could possibly secure sympathy for him and his party.

However, another red-red government coalition seems unlikely. For a state government with the participation of the SPD and the Left Party, another party would probably be necessary in order to occupy a corresponding number of seats in the state parliament. A red-red-green government could represent such a possibility. However, this would require the Greens to exceed the five percent threshold in the election, which is questionable at the moment: the party's election forecasts are currently still fluctuating around five percent.

What is certainly not likely to have a positive impact on the Greens' election results is that there have been repeated internal disputes within the party in recent weeks. At the heart of this dispute is the faction leader Constanze Oehlrich, who has since resigned and has been accused of harassment on several occasions.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that all relevant parties in MV (SPD, AfD, CDU, Die Linke, Alliance 90/The Greens) promise to know the course to steer the country in a positive direction. While the ruling SPD emphasizes how good its previous policies have been, the other parties denounce how much has been missed and what they would change. In addition to education, social issues and security, the focus of the programs in various variations is, above all, on promoting the economy.

In terms of economic policy, all of the parties mentioned above emphasize the need for new skilled workers. Most parties want to promote this in two ways: recruiting foreign and migrant skilled workers - except of course for the AfD, which wants to specifically restrict this - and improving training conditions. However, the focus is not on higher pay for trainees - only the Left Party plans to ensure “higher wages and better working and training conditions”. The remaining parties want to create various incentives, such as a bonus for starting or completing training, as well as more educational opportunities.

The parties also rely on various subsidies for various sectors of the economy. Almost in unison, almost all parties want to reduce bureaucracy and make it easier for companies to make profits by dismantling various requirements. The only difference between the election programs is how far they are prepared to go, for example when it comes to climate protection and collective bargaining.

It is also noticeable here that the Left Party wants to focus on disarmament and peacebuilding, while the CDU specifically names arms companies as desirable targets for subsidies. This reflects the polarization of society on the issue of rearmament and is likely to represent a major obstacle in possible coalition negotiations.

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One demand from the AfD particularly stands out. This would like to organize regular committees of politicians and business bosses. What is justified as a better satisfaction of companies' needs turns out to be an invitation for more lobbying at second glance.

In terms of social policy, all of the relevant parties promise relief for citizens, but they can do very little to counteract the inflation of recent years and the ongoing dismantling of the welfare state. What stands out is the CDU's demand, which wants to give citizens 30 euros per person per year to offset electricity costs. These 30 euros would hardly compensate for the increased electricity costs, fuel costs or social reforms caused by the CDU at the federal level.

In addition, all parties are committed to expanding and securing health care, which is under serious threat in the predominantly rural state. However, the programs are often limited to vague ideas or plans to combat the shortage of doctors, which will remain a long way off thanks to study and training funding.

In addition, the social policy part of most election programs is noticeably short, which is probably due to the strong limitations that federal politics imposes on the states through cuts to the welfare state. Even among the left and the SPD, who otherwise want to make themselves popular with these areas, plans remain largely limited to individual measures or demands on the federal government. Both also want to focus largely on voluntary projects.

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There are some differences between the parties when it comes to security policy. The Left and the Greens only give security policy a smaller amount of space in their election programs. They focus on civil rights and emphasize, among other things, that surveillance technology should only be used to a limited extent.

The CDU, on the other hand, is calling for more police officers, more rights for them, and greater surveillance. Although the SPD formulates some of its demands in a somewhat shallower manner, it fundamentally agrees with the further expansion of the police and its competencies. Both parties also want to strengthen the judiciary and the rule of law and also expand civil defense and disaster protection. In the wake of the war in Ukraine, the latter area is increasingly coming into the context of rearmament and war preparation.

The AfD serves the same points as the CDU, but adds an even more anti-migrant note. It implicitly names migrants as a danger to the public and states that deportations will be carried out as quickly and widely as possible. To make this possible, she wants to create a special police department and house refugees in mass accommodation away from society. The AfD also seems to want to take action against migrant people who cannot be deported. She would like to abolish the documentation requirement for checks independent of suspicion, which in practice would make racist police checks easier.

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Overall, the AfD's election program makes xenophobia an expectedly big issue. In addition to the specific demands to terrorize migrant people in MV and, for example, to collect them preventively in camps, xenophobic demands run through the entire election program. This is also the case in the economic and social program, where migrants are repeatedly used as enemies and all possible benefits are to be cut.

The attack of the AfD election program does not stop with fellow migrants; women and LGBTI+ people also face various restrictions on their rights in the event of an AfD government. The goal of the fascist party: combat emancipatory culture and gender consciousness and promote “traditional family forms” – meaning the patriarchal distribution of roles.

In its election program, the AfD denies the existence of a social gender that is separate from biological sex. She wants to prevent information about this and abolish the free determination of gender. She also wants to exert her influence on the German language. It is a declared opponent of gendered language and wants to prevent it as far as possible.

For the AfD, the main focus is on the birth rate, which they definitely want to increase. To this end, she wants to promote having children, for example through a “baby welcome allowance” of 3,000 euros. There are also various social programs and improvements for parents in the election program, but there are always familiar patriarchal tones. For example, “for dual-working parents […] the compatibility of family and work is often difficult to manage.” The AfD also speaks out vehemently against abortions, but for the time being remains strictly committed to the abortion paragraph in criminal law, as well as the protection and expansion of counseling services that are intended to show women “concrete alternatives”.

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The AfD also wants to shape culture. For example, by supporting monuments to soldiers and fallen soldiers - the AfD leaves out who exactly should be commemorated more. They also “stand for the preservation and promotion of German and European-Western culture” and want to strengthen German and especially Low German “folk art”. “Ideologically motivated projects,” on the other hand, should be put to the test. This probably refers to all such cultural projects that are a thorn in the side of the AfD's fascist ideology.

It has been shown again and again that election programs do not in any way reflect the actual will of the parties. Last but not least, the CDU's circumvention of the debt brake as its first action after its successful federal election in 2025 has once again revealed this. Anyone who still doesn't want to be discouraged by an election is faced with election programs that hardly differ from each other. The demands that promise actual improvements for the people in MV are minimal or affect a specific group of people.

The most promising - and usually most expensive - election promises often fall victim to coalition negotiations as quickly as possible. More radical changes that have a major impact on society as a whole usually cannot be implemented and usually do not make it into the election manifestos. Its implementation is opposed by economic constraints, which in turn are to be covered by the economic subsidies that every party with a government claim has in its repertoire.

The only election program that stands out for its truly radical demands is that of the AfD, which primarily stands out with a lot of fascist ideas and content. For voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20th, the question that has arisen in almost all elections in recent years will once again be asked: uniformity in only slightly different flavors, or fascists in power?