EIL: Left is clearly the strongest force in Berlin – AfD ahead of SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

According to the first projections, the Left will win the House of Representatives election in Berlin ahead of the CDU. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD is just ahead of the SPD. In both federal states, the state governments no longer have a majority.

The first projections for the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin are public. In Berlin, the Left Party became the strongest force with 24.5 percent. She can probably double her result from the last election. In 2023 she received 12.2 percent of the vote for the election to the House of Representatives.

According to initial projections, the second strongest force in Berlin is the CDU with 20 percent of the vote (2023: 28.2). There were also big gains for the AfD. She probably ends up with 16 percent of the second votes (2023: 9.1). Behind them are the Greens with 15 (2023: 18.4) and the SPD with 12 percent (2023: 18.4) of the second votes. For the SPD, this means its worst worst result in an election in Berlin.

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AfD also wins in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

In the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the first projections predict an election victory for the AfD. With a predicted 37.0 percent of second votes, the party can more than double its result from 2021 (16.7). The SPD only lost slightly behind with 35.5 percent (2021: 39.6). Behind them, four parties are likely to enter the Schwerin state parliament with less than ten percent of the two votes.

According to initial forecasts, the Left Party will receive 7.5 percent of the vote (2021: 9.9). The Greens are also likely to return to the state parliament with 5.5 percent of the vote (2021: 6.3). The CDU, on the other hand, probably achieved its worst result in a state-level election. In initial projections, the party is only just above the five percent hurdle at 5.5 percent (2021: 13.3).

According to initial forecasts, the BSW in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania still has to worry about its first entry into the state parliament. You currently have exactly 5 percent of the second votes. The FDP, on the other hand, is clearly eliminated from the state parliament with an extrapolated 1.2 percent (2021: 5.8).

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New governments in both countries

According to the first projections, it is already clear that the previous governments can no longer govern in both federal states. In Berlin, the previous black-red coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner (CDU) no longer has a majority. The Left as the strongest party, together with the Greens and SPD, would achieve a government majority. As of now, a so-called Kenya coalition with the CDU, Greens and SPD would also be possible.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, however, the AfD, as the strongest party, is unlikely to find any partners in the government. Neither the BSW nor the CDU would get more than half of the votes in the state parliament. As things stand, a coalition of the SPD, the Left and the Greens is likely to have just enough votes.

Immediately after the projections, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) also spoke at a press conference and declared that he wanted to continue the so-called reform course. Some observers expected the federal government to resign or be dissolved in response to the election defeats in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

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