Is there a risk of renewed US attacks on Iran after the midterms?

The Iran war and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz posed a risk for US President Trump in the midterm elections. Now there are discussions about a new major military strike after the election.

Is the war in the Persian Gulf flaring up again? There have been discussions for weeks about joint preparations by Israel and the USA for a renewed attack on Iran. At the beginning of October, for example, the news portal reportedAxiosthat the Pentagon had ordered US Central Command to complete preparations for the resumption of major combat operations in Iran.

Reported last weekAssociated Pressthen about corresponding warnings from US government officials to allied states in West Asia. New military strikes could therefore take place after the midterm elections on Tuesday and result in Iranian retaliatory strikes on targets in the states of the Gulf region. The report referred to two unnamed diplomats.

Escalation is generally accepted

The question was also discussed at one of the weekendsSecurity conferencein the Bahraini capital Manama. High-ranking military officials as well as foreign and security politicians from the Arab world, Asia, the USA and Europe took part. Nils Schmid - SPD politician and parliamentary state secretary in the Federal Ministry of Defense - traveled from Germany and spoke out in favor of a diplomatic solution.

Midterms in the USA: Trump under pressure

Schmid commented to the Tagesschau that a renewed outbreak of war would weaken the economy in Germany and Europe again: "We are already massively affected by the effects of the war here in the Gulf region - through rising oil prices, through rising inflation, through the weakening of the global economy."

At the opening of the conference, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called for more European commitment to opening sea routes, including using military means if necessary.

Hasan Alhasan, head of the Gulf region department at the think tank Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), spoke on the sidelines of the conference that the impending new phase of escalation was generally accepted. Signals from the Trump administration would suggest that preparations are underway. Military analyst Sascha Bruchmann pointed out that the Gulf states had been arming themselves since the first escalation in the spring, for example as part of a deal with Ukraine on drone defense technology.

Positions within the US government

There is one in the US administrationreportfrom Axios on Monday, according to three different positions. While one wing around US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth advocates renewed military strikes and is supported by the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, another group around US Vice President J.D. Vance and US special envoy Steve Witkoff called for continued negotiations between the US and Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and CIA Director John Ratcliffe are all in favor of maintaining pressure on Iran through sanctions without escalating again.

Meanwhile, US President Trump continues to keep all options open. In an interview with Axios, he said: "One way or another we're going to do something, but there's no rush. We've crippled them financially. They have no money, no gas, and their population is getting fed up with it."

The election results on Tuesday evening will show to what extent the US population feels the same way in view of the increased fuel prices.

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