USA | Duped

This is what losers look like: Republican supporters react in shock to the results of the US Senate election at Republican candidate Ken Paxton's election party in Dallas. Photo: AFP/Ricardo Arduengo "Angry voters are ushering in the end of the Trump era," is how the New York Times summarized the "blue wave" that broke over Trump and the Republican Party in the midterm elections on Tuesday in an initial analysis. The Democrats, who are traditionally considered blue in the US political colors, recaptured both chambers of the US Congress. After most of the votes have been counted, they have comfortable majorities of at least 228 out of 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 54 out of 100 seats in the Senate.

The results are rightly viewed as historic landslide victories that “significantly exceed” those won by the Republicans in 1994 and 2010, according to the New York Times. At that time, the Democrats under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had lost their majorities in Congress and thus control over their domestic political agenda. For the right, they were the starting signal for the “Republican Revolution” and later the Tea Party wave, which ultimately became the MAGA movement: Make America Great Again.

Forecasts had predicted a “blue wave” weeks before the midterms. According to a Pew Research Center survey from October 2026, “the economy” was a priority for both political camps when choosing candidates: 88 percent of Democratic and 82 percent of Republican voters rated it as very important. In other surveys, many voters across party lines said they felt duped by Trump. They would have expected his election promises from two years ago to be fulfilled, such as that he would lower prices and not start new wars.

Although Republicans agree with closing the borders to prevent further influx of migrants, they criticize the raids and deportations of people, most of whom have been living and working in the USA for years. In addition, many respondents cited the Trump administration's tariff policies, which noticeably increased the cost of living. They are also “extremely dissatisfied” with health care and the insurance system, which is far too expensive. Currently, two thirds of registered voters say this, including eight out of ten Democrats and one in two Republicans.  

A nationwide voter survey conducted by the Associated Press news agency between October 22 and Election Day among around 80,000 eligible voters shows clear shifts in the social-structural composition of the electorate. According to this, around 70 percent of those under 30 said they had voted for Democratic congressional candidates, while this age group was divided in the 2024 presidential election. Trump and the Republicans also lost support among Latinos: While almost 40 percent voted for Trump in 2024, around 69 percent now support Democratic candidates.

“Democrats are catching up with working-class voters.”

Even in rural areas and among white voters without a college degree, the Washington Post recorded shifts of more than 15 percentage points in favor of the Democrats in an election analysis in traditionally Republican voting environments. In rural areas, Republicans lost support because many voters were dissatisfied with Trump's economic policies and the Iran war; However, the shift did not mean that Democrats won majorities everywhere.

While voters without a college degree had supported Trump by more than twelve percentage points in 2024, they now narrowly voted for the Democratic congressional candidates (49 to 47 percent). While a Republican majority remained among white voters without a college degree (55 percent to 42 percent), the Republican lead shrank to less than half of what it was in 2024 - the Washington Post summarized this development under the headline: "Democrats are catching up with working-class voters."

Increased mobilization of Black voters, particularly in the southern states, was also observed. For example, she contributed to the success of Democrat Annie Andrews in the Senate election in South Carolina.

Reliable voter turnout data that provides information about concrete voter movements from Republicans to Democrats is expected in the coming days. According to estimates from the University of Florida, around 49.4 percent of eligible voters took part in the midterms, which is just below the record number from 2018 (50.05 percent). In view of the "blue wave", an open question is whether it is a temporary protest movement against Trump or whether the Democrats, including those on the left, can permanently retain the Latino, working class and young voters they have won back.

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