Exclusion from AGOA agreement: Donald Trump annoys South Africa and Rwanda

Shortly before the defeat of his Republicans in the congressional elections in the USA, President Donald Trump triggered a trade policy crisis. South Africa and Rwanda will lose preferential access to the US market for their export goods under the US-Africa trade law AGOA (Africa Growth and Opportunities Act) from January 1, 2027, the president announced on Monday. South Africa is Africa's largest economy, and Rwanda is considered one of the most dynamic countries on the continent. The two governments reacted with surprise.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called Trump's move "negative" and said his country would now try to negotiate a bilateral trade deal with the United States. Rwanda's government of President Paul Kagame officially completely ignored the US decision; As Trump's alleged letter to Kagame justifying the AGOA exclusion made the rounds on social media, Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said on Tuesday that the letter was "not genuine."

A similar letter to South African President Ramaphosa has also become public. It accuses the country of trade barriers and says South Africa's "cooperation with governments of concern to the United States threatens to undermine U.S. national security and foreign policy." The letter to Rwanda's President Kagame, which has become public, argues in the same way, but also formulates detailed criticism of the human rights situation in Rwanda and Rwanda's support for rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

AGOA is a US trade program that offers select African countries – currently 30 – tariff-free access for agricultural goods and manufactured products. It was introduced in 2000, extended for ten years in 2015 and revived again by the US Congress for one year in March 2026, so its future is open.

Countries being excluded from AGOA for political reasons is a common occurrence - most recently Uganda was suspended in 2024 because of its anti-homosexuality legislation. The numerous countries in which military coup leaders rule are also excluded. Rwanda was previously briefly suspended in 2018 when it introduced import bans on used clothes to protect its textile industry.

An AGOA exclusion can certainly have negative effects. In South Africa, where the official unemployment rate is 33.6 percent and populist agitation against migrants dominates politics, the trade union umbrella organization Cosatu is now warning of “ghost towns” in agricultural areas on the Cape that make a living from exporting fruit and wine to the USA. 130,000 jobs are at risk in the country, said Kingsley Makhubela, head of the South African state-owned outdoor advertising agency Brand South Africa.

Critically, commentators note that US imports of raw materials and minerals from South Africa are not affected - AGOA last year included South African exports of only $1.7 billion, out of a total value of $28.8 billion. The same applies to Rwanda, which only shipped $43.3 million in goods to the US last year, a full 4 percent of which fell under AGOA. The significance of the US move against Rwanda lies primarily in the fact that it expands existing US sanctions over Rwanda's support of Congo's rebels.