Survey | AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania three points ahead of SPD

The state parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has its seat in Schwerin Castle. Photo: Jens Büttner/dpa Schwerin.  Before the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in just over a week, a ZDF poll sees the AfD at 37 percent, three points ahead of Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig's SPD. The CDU is at seven percent - that would be its worst result in a state election since the founding of the Federal Republic. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party is threatened with another severe defeat after its debacle in the recent state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.

The AfD's lead over the Social Democrats is significantly smaller in the survey by the Elections Research Group for ZDF than it was in surveys by other institutes a few months ago. This confirms the picture that other pollsters have also identified in recent weeks. However, the AfD was recently able to expand its lead somewhat in an ARD survey published on Thursday evening. 

According to the ZDF figures, the Left is currently in third place with 10 percent. The Greens come to five percent, the BSW is four percent. There is also a five percent hurdle for entry into the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

During the election campaign, Schwesig is relying on mobilization against the AfD and is presenting himself as “The Woman Against Blue.” In a direct comparison with the AfD's top candidate Leif-Erik Holm, she does significantly better when asked who people would rather have as prime minister. 61 percent named the incumbent and 28 percent named the challenger. 

The Elections Research Group surveyed 1,053 eligible voters on behalf of ZDF from Monday to Thursday. It indicates the error tolerance for a share value of 40 percent as plus/minus three percentage points; for a share value of ten percent it is plus/minus two points. According to the information, the survey is representative.

Against the background of polarization in the election campaign, the CDU had recently slipped further. In the latest survey by Infratest dimap on behalf of ARD, the Christian Democrats fell from 8 to 7 percent compared to a survey published by the institute at the beginning of September, while the SPD gained one point to 33 percent. The AfD's rating rose even more in the survey, which was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, from 35 to 38 percent. 

A survey published on Thursday by the opinion research institute Insa for the “Nordkurier” also sees the CDU at 7 percent. This survey took place from September 1st to 8th, partly before the election in Saxony-Anhalt.

Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion researchers to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.  dpa/nd

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