State election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD remains constant, CDU is approaching the 5 percent hurdle

Can the AfD benefit from its final victory in Saxony-Anhalt in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania? Three new surveys see different effects. A representative survey by the opinion research agency Pollytix on behalf of Campact sees the ultra-right party in the state at 36 percent - and thus at the same level as before the Saxony-Anhalt election. In second place is still the SPD with top candidate and Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig, who, according to the survey, would get 30 percent. The data is available exclusively to the taz.

The third strongest force would be the Left, which is at 12 percent. According to the survey, the CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania continues to lose and is at 6 percent, just like the Greens. The BSW is estimated at 5 percent and could therefore enter the Schwerin state parliament. The FDP, on the other hand, would clearly miss the mark with 2 percent.

The data was collected after the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt last Sunday. They are based on a survey of 1,252 people who took part online and by telephone.

According to the ARD pre-election survey published on Thursday, the AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania grew by 3 percentage points to 38 percent. The SPD would be 5 points behind with 33 percent. The CDU would therefore have to expect significant losses compared to the election five years ago and would come to 7 percent.

Campact managing director Felix Kolb is concerned about the CDU's weakness. He told the taz: “An escalation of the election campaign to a duel between the SPD and AfD is risky.” For the future of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, it is not crucial who comes first on election evening. “It is more important that enough democratic parties gain a stable majority in the state parliament.”

The SPD's strategy is to focus the election campaign on the battle for first place. After the election in Saxony-Anhalt, the campaign was adjusted and now billboards Schwesig as “the woman against blue” – instead of, as before, as “the woman for MV”.

A current survey by Insa on behalf of Nordkurier sees the SPD 3 percentage points behind the AfD (33 and 36 percent). The CDU therefore slips to 7 percent. The Left and the Greens remain stable at 11 and 5 percent. The BSW would therefore not be represented in the state parliament at 4 percent. People were surveyed before and after the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.