Spain | Va banque in Madrid

Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez gestures during the meeting of the PSOE's federal executive board, where the candidate lists for the parliamentary elections were confirmed. Whether Sanchez's optimism is justified remains to be seen. Photo: EUROPA PRESS/dpa/Jesús Hellín Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez plays on a card. After the eviction of a now-deceased 87-year-old lady from her apartment in Madrid at the end of September triggered a wave of outrage over excessive rental prices throughout Spain, the Social Democrat sensed his chance. Instead of waiting until the end of his term in office next summer, he quickly decided to call new elections for November 29th. The calculation: With a social protest movement behind him, he could once again defeat the conservatives and right-wing extremists, who have been ahead in most opinion polls for months. He had already achieved this in new elections three years ago, which were also scheduled at short notice.

However, the risks are considerable. The progressive government coalition of the social democratic PSOE with the left-wing alliance Sumar and their partners from the Basque Country and Catalonia have been able to push through a whole series of positive social reforms in recent years. In foreign policy, Sánchez also set important accents against Donald Trump's imperial war policy, the militarization of the EU and the genocide in Gaza. Nevertheless, there is a lot of criticism. The conservative and extreme right have been successfully mobilizing against the government's liberal migration policy since the Ceuta refugee crisis in August. But rising costs of living and corruption scandals are also causing a lot of discontent. The government's reform proposals for social regulation of the urgent housing problem that have now been put forward come too late for many.

Inside Europe is the joint monthly column by »nd« and the European platform die-zukunft.eu. Activists, MPs, representatives of NGOs, scientists and other people interested in Europe take a critical look at the EU and developments in Europe.

If the Social Democrats and their left-wing partners suffer a defeat on November 29th, Spain will face a dangerous scenario. The national-conservative People's Party Partido Popular (PP) will enter into a hard-right alliance with the ever-growing right-wing extremist party VOX. There is no firewall in Spain. It would be a government that would build on the legacy of the fascist dictatorship of Francisco Franco (1892-1975). Aggressive action against migrants and a reactionary-clerical family policy would be expected, as would confrontation with the Basque and Catalan national movements and a brutal austerity policy.

The elections could also be a warning sign for Europe. A right-wing election victory could be the overture for a further shift in the balance of power to the right. Sánchez leads the last progressive government involving the left in the European Union. In almost all other EU countries, conservatives or social democrats govern with conservatives. VOX's participation in the government in Spain could further normalize what is already a reality in Italy. The forces of the extreme right rule. That would be a fatal signal in the run-up to the presidential elections in France and the parliamentary elections in Greece, Estonia, Finland, Slovakia and Poland next year.

Against this background, developments in the political space to the left of the PSOE are also worrying. Despite months of diplomatic efforts and loud grassroots demands, the most relevant forces on the left were unable to agree on running the election together. The top candidate of the opposition Podemos, Irene Montero, rejected the offers of Sumar's government left to put together joint lists in the upcoming election campaign. There will now be a “Frente Amplio” (Broad Front) in which Sumar, Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid and Comuns gather. But with Podemos' candidacy there will be two or even more competing left-wing lists in most provinces. Even if arguments can always be presented for each candidacy, the bottom line is that the fragmentation of the left will promote the shift to the right in Spain. A bitter realization in the 90th year after the Franco coup.

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