Middle East | Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Iran facing a long war

The conflict on the Arabian Peninsula is entering the next chapter. Photo: dpa/Bernd von Jutrczenka The Yemeni rebel movement Ansar Allah, better known as the "Houthis", which is allied with the Iranian regime, is responding to the Yemeni government army's new offensive by shelling the Saudi capital and important infrastructure of the neighboring country's oil and gas industry. Since September 2014, Saudi Arabia has been supporting the government that fled to Aden.

The capital Sanaa was stormed by the Houthi movement in 2014. Saudi Arabia has also been a player in this conflict for years. After the Houthis' surprise attack on the coast of the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, in mid-September, Riyadh wanted to finally crush the rebel group. But now the opposite seems to be happening.

Two weeks ago, government soldiers were able to fight for lost supply routes to Taizz, the country's second largest city. But over a million residents still live within range of the Houthi artillery and their drones. Dr. Essam Mahyoub Dahan, a senior doctor at the Republican Clinic, the largest hospital in the city, warns of a complete collapse in medical care. In the clinic, as in the rest of the country, there is a lack of medication and bandages, said Dahan.

Aden Governor Abdulrahman Sheikh narrowly escaped death on Wednesday as he inspected Aden airport with technicians. Apparently Houthi informants got wind of the prominent visit and fired on the airport grounds just as Sheikh was leaving. Repair work on previous damage to the airport, financed by the Saudi Development and Reconstruction Fund, had to be canceled.

Rocket attacks that appear out of nowhere have been a daily occurrence for the residents of Aden since 2015. As in Taizz, neither warring party has the upper hand around Aden. But the Saudi armored cars captured by Yemeni government troops during their summer offensive are likely to prompt the Houthis to drive the Yemeni government out of Aden.

For over twelve years, until the ceasefire ended in the summer, the people of Saudi Arabia felt little of the Yemeni civil war. While Saudi bombs were falling in Aden and Sanaa, Mohamed bin Salman was implementing his breathtaking modernization program in the ultra-conservative country. Saudi youth celebrated the crown prince for an end to the driving ban for women, the opening of previously banned cinemas or the approval of sporting events for men and women.

But these, like the pop concerts that were sold out last year, have been canceled for the foreseeable future, and flagship projects such as the futuristic desert city “The Line” have had their budgets drastically cut. Golf tournaments, car races and conferences also had to be canceled due to the shelling of Riyadh by the Houthis.

In Riyadh, this disgrace towards a supposedly far inferior opponent is the number one topic. But with an informal ban on talking about the consequences of the attacks, the government has so far been able to largely keep the tense mood in the country at least from the world public.

More and more families are quietly leaving the capital. Come back in a few weeks and reassure friends and relatives. Western embassies are instructing the families of their diplomats and employees who are not currently needed to seek protection in Dubai or Qatar or to leave the region via the airports there.

The economic damage from the Iranian attacks in the spring on parts of the country's oil infrastructure as well as the current attacks is likely to be immense, but there are no official figures. If Israel and the USA continue their attacks on Iran, there is even a risk of a complete stop to Saudi oil exports.

The Houthis have already announced that they will close the Bab Al-Mandab Strait to commercial ships if this happens. The regime in Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz in anticipation of a major attack. Any American-Israeli aggression will be met with previously unseen counterattacks, said an Iranian general. "The Gulf states will pay the main price for allowing the US army to attack us from their territory."

According to US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, a new war in Iran could be imminent. In an interview with podcaster Mario Nawfal, the ambassador - who was not directly involved in negotiations with Iran - speculated about a possible attack order from Trump this weekend.

Because the interview was broadcast by the Israeli army radio station, many in the region suspect indirect campaign support for Benjamin Netanyahu. The prime minister is worried about his re-election in next Tuesday's elections. The fear of a new war alone could discourage some Israeli voters from voting for a change of government.

In Riyadh, Dubai and Doha, many families are now stockpiling food again. They have learned one thing in the last three years: once you plan a war, you don't back out at the last moment.

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