State elections | Election year 2026: shift to the right and countermovement

Left-wing leader Elif Eralp: Will she be the new governing mayor in Berlin? Photo: dpa/Sebastian Gollnow The elections in autumn 2026 mark a turning point in German politics. They manifest a political shift with profound consequences. What began with the 2024 state elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony is now continuing, especially in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: In all of the eastern German states, the AfD has established itself as a permanent, sometimes leading force in the political landscape and has withdrawn massive votes from the CDU. It has thus achieved a comprehensive anchoring, ranging from the local level to state politics and the federal government.

This involves considerable financial and human resources as well as the gradual penetration of mayoral and district council offices as well as other decision-making bodies. Even in the metropolis of Berlin, which operates differently than a large country, the AfD is now on a par with the strongest established parties. Even if the rise of this extreme right to right-wing extremist party does not continue unabated, one must assume that it will hold its positions in the political system in the long term.

In view of this, some in the West are wondering how long they can continue to put up with this from the East. This is an extremely short-sighted and self-centered view. The economic and social problems in the East and the associated political upheavals are problems for the entire Federal Republic of Germany; they affect their constitution as a whole. And the West is catching up. This was clearly evident in the state elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in March of this year, and this is likely to also be the case in the 2027 state elections in five western German federal states.

Whether the current federal government will still be in office is a question with many question marks. The CDU and SPD, the parties in the grand coalition, lost massively in these September elections. The hectic attempts to quickly announce relief measures for drivers could not change this. And the overall picture can only be poorly retouched by the Schwesig SPD's impressive comeback in the northeast, which was not at the expense of the AfD, but at the expense of possible coalition partners such as the CDU, the Left and the Greens. The crisis is deep in the bones of the governing parties.

But with the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania there is also a countermovement to the shift to the right associated with the AfD. Progressive majorities could become possible in both federal states. This can open up perspectives for more social politics, especially in Berlin, and form a counterpoint to what may be brewing in Saxony-Anhalt, even with knowledge of this Sunday's results. However, this is not an automatic process, because in the capital the badly damaged SPD, which is still important again, will have a hard time with the question of whether it will take part as a small partner in a Senate led by the Left or by the CDU. The previous CDU-SPD coalition is not a glory, which was not only due to Kai Wegner's tennis game during the big power outage.

It cannot be ruled out that the Left will govern in Berlin in the future and continue to co-govern in Schwerin. In Schwerin there is experience from the red-red alliance and apparently a relationship of trust. Even if the Left in the northeast has to ask itself - as it did in Saxony-Anhalt - why it was not able to counter the pressure of the camp election campaign enough. In Berlin, on the other hand, she was able to put herself at the forefront of the camp election campaign, reach out to masses of previous non-voters and also attract many supporters of the Greens and SPD. Now it is important to strive for useful red-green-red compromises from a position of strength in the difficult tug-of-war over a Senate majority, but not to repeat the mistakes of previous co-government in Berlin, which led to the wear and tear of the left.

It is possible that the BSW in Schwerin – similar to Magdeburg – can play a role in forming the majority. It then has to decide whether it wants to stick to the actually apolitical front position between so-called old or cartel parties on the one hand and the AfD and BSW on the other. The Wagenknecht party was able to stabilize at a low level in the East German states, while it plays no role in the West. How long-lasting the success can be of a party that, firstly, depends largely on the charisma of its founder, secondly, which places itself partly in the service of the AfD and, thirdly, which is therefore shaken by internal conflicts, is a completely open question.

A footnote should be noted: As of this Sunday, the FDP is no longer represented in any East German state parliament; in the West there are only four liberal state parliamentary groups. This party is in intensive care.

The »nd.Genossenschaft« belongs to its readers and authors. They are the ones who make our journalism accessible to everyone through their contribution: We are not backed by a media company, not a large advertising customer or even a billionaire.

With your support we can continue to:

→ report independently and critically → address overlooked topics → give space to marginalized voices → counter misinformation → advance left-wing debates

With “Pay voluntarily” you can take part. You help ensure that this newspaper has a future. So that nd remains.