Crime | More shots in Berlin? What's behind the numbers

The Daltons: presumably a Berlin youth group to which numerous shootings are attributed. Their name comes from the bandits from “Lucky Luke”. Photo: Screenshot Welt-TV Based on the headlines of the last few weeks, one would think that Berlin is firmly in the hands of organized crime and that the Left has its fingers in the game. Should you be worried?

I am not inclined to react to such proposals with doom and gloom and say that everything is completely dangerous. Because this always increases the so-called intimidation capital of people in the criminal environment. When people are constantly told how much power and influence certain people have, it makes it easier for them to get their way.

If a member of the Bundestag from the Left (Ferat Koçak) has contact with the criminal milieu, then that is not automatically at a level where one has to be seriously concerned about the continued existence of our community. In my opinion, things only become truly explosive when social elites and criminal elites see each other as allies. I only see something like that in Berlin.

One point is the financial possibilities of criminal actors. Estimates suggest that there is a lot of money in the hands of criminals, which may also be used to corrupt the state, for example. I would say that the area of ​​justice, i.e. law enforcement and the penal system, is particularly risky.

Klaus vonlampe is professor of criminology at the Berlin School of Economics and Law. The focus of his academic work is the topic of organized crime.

How big is the problem in Berlin really, even in comparison to other cities and countries?

A lot of money is made in Berlin, increasingly through drugs. The problem must be taken seriously, but compared to international standards it is still limited. I'm currently researching Frankfurt am Main. There are completely different people at the start than here.

The Daltons, a presumably Turkish group, have been bothering the Berlin public for two years: they are considered responsible for a large number of shootings. Why are groups like this only emerging now?

That's a bit obscure. These are originally typical youth gangs, I would say. And they probably made a pretty good living from the drug trade that goes from Afghanistan and Iran through Turkey to Europe. After the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, this trade declined, at least in the short term. At the same time, the law enforcement authorities in Turkey have probably applied more pressure. This is said to have caused these gangs to look for alternative options. And that apparently included thinking about where people from Turkey live in the West who have made money and from whom they can extort money.

Then there is the story that a leading member of the Daltons found refuge in Russia in 2024 and, according to media reports, is giving instructions from there. This leads to the assumption that the shootings in Berlin are part of Moscow's destabilization efforts in Europe.

Police crime statistics (PKS) are often used to prove that more shootings are taking place. How reliable are the numbers from these statistics?

The PKS in general is not a one-to-one depiction of the crime situation and crime development. The significant increase in cases of firearm use in Berlin in 2025 also has to do with a changed PKS mechanism. In the police processing system POLIKS, officers have had to indicate the type of use of firearms since 2025, i.e. threat, firing or just carried. And things like that make people think more about typing. And the purpose of something like this is nothing other than to more comprehensively statistically record what has become known to the police.

Note d. Editor: In response to nd's request, the Berlin police explained that the 1,119 cases for 2025 were mostly cases without "sharp" firearms. Blank guns, irritants and signal weapons are also recorded, as are cases in which a victim subjectively felt threatened by a firearm, such as a toy gun. The mandatory recording of the “type of weapon use” since 2025 caused the increase “at least in part”. For 2026, the police counted 105 incidents involving live firearms by October 11th.

At the beginning of 2026, Mehmet K., considered a prominent organized crime figure in Berlin as “Kürt Mehmet,” died. Did his death change anything?

I can't say much about that. He was seen as someone with influence in the milieu who was able to mediate conflicts. If someone like that disappears, conflicts may escalate and become violent. But I don't think that's the best or most obvious explanation for the increase in firearm use. It seems to be mostly about intimidation of blackmail victims, not about disputes in the milieu.

Are there other reasons that can explain the statistical increase in the use of firearms?

The willingness to report and the intensity of police controls play a role here. When shots are fired, especially when someone or something is harmed, people don't keep it to themselves. Especially when it comes to shooting people and things, I think we've actually had a real increase in the last year.

What does it say about the intent of the perpetrators if more shots are fired at buildings and businesses?

This is a bit unclear. So what the police are saying is that some of these shootings actually come from groups like the Daltons who are involved in extortion. What is worrying, in my view, is that some others in the criminal world may have been encouraged to do certain things that would not previously have been handled with firearms. But: We are at a historically low level of firearm use in Germany. This is well below what we had in the 1990s and also well below the level in the Federal Republic of Germany in the 1980s.

Do more guns also lead to an increase in knife violence? According to reports, young people are carrying knives more often at schools.

First and foremost, it has something to do with fear when children and young people run around with knives. Knives are primarily carried for self-protection and not to implement any offensive strategy of violence. The same also applies to firearms.

What are the benefits of higher penalties for illegal firearm possession?

How high the penalty is does not play such a big role in deterrence. Becoming the subject of criminal proceedings in the first place has more of an impact than the punishment that ends up being the result. However, pre-trial detention also has a deterrent effect. That being said, I think people in criminal backgrounds, even if they have easy access to weapons, are still more likely to use a knife when the need arises. Getting caught with a knife is not as problematic as getting caught with a gun.

What do you expect from a future Berlin government in dealing with organized crime?

I don't see my job as a scientist as giving politicians guidelines. First of all, I am curious to see whether there will be a consensus on security policy in the Red-Green-Red coalition negotiations. There is already a fundamental conflict in the assessment of the crime situation. In my opinion, this can be eliminated if one faces the realities without fear and calmly sets about identifying problem areas and finding pragmatic solutions.

The public uses a lot of vague and misleading terms and clichéd ideas, which can quickly lead to misjudgments and wrong decisions. Politicians would therefore do well to take a more serious and open approach to the expertise of the police, public prosecutors, courts and penal systems, but also to that in schools and social work, in the private sector, in civil society and, last but not least, in science.

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