Upcoming state elections | AfD shock is unique

Things don't look as bleak in the capital as they do in Saxony-Anhalt: Berlin's AfD top candidate Kristin Brinker at the election party in Magdeburg. Photo: dpa/Sebastian Gollnow Of course, the AfD feels inspired by its fantastic performance in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and wants to use the boost for the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and for the Berlin House of Representatives election, which will take place on September 20th. However, there is some evidence to suggest that the situation there is not comparable to that in Saxony-Anhalt.

It was not a landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt, but one that had been in the offing for a long time. In the end, the AfD ended up roughly where it was seen in the polls. The pollsters weren't that wrong. Taking this as a benchmark, the AfD will receive between 34 and 37 percent in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. There is no threat of a sole government for this party - perhaps because the AfD is not sending Ulrich Siegmund into the race, but the SPD is sending its Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig.

No significant effects are expected for Berlin either. We already know that the capital AfD could double its result from 2023. But that would only get it to just under 20 percent and would have nothing to do with forming a government - regardless of whether the BSW enters the House of Representatives or not. The Left and the CDU are both about as strong as the AfD in Berlin, the SPD and the Greens are only a few percentage points behind. Choosing tactically is not necessary and would achieve nothing. Every voter can easily tick the party that they like the most or that they consider to be the least of the evils. It could be that the shock in Magdeburg will persuade undecided Berliners to go to the polling station and vote against the AfD with their cross anywhere else.

However, the all-clear can only be given for the imminent elections. The hope that the AfD had exhausted its potential and could not grow any further has already been disappointed several times. If you didn't believe that the AfD could ever get close to 20 percent in Berlin, you shouldn't be lulled into the certainty that it will never reach 40 percent in the capital. That is entirely possible, especially if a policy of rearmament and social cuts continues, which plays into the hands of the AfD.

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