The AfD emerged as the clear winner from the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt. Surveys now show which topics scored well with voters. Now the question arises about forming a government.

Even if the last votes for the official final result are still being counted, this showspreliminary resultThe result of the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt is clear: the AfD emerges as the clear winner with just under 44 percent of the vote. This contrasts with the CDU, which will enter the state parliament as the second strongest force with around 17 percent, but has therefore more than halved its own 2021 election result. Added to this are the SPD with 9.3 percent, Alliance 90/The Greens with 8.9 percent, the Left Party with 8.6 percent and the BSW, which barely manages to get over the five percent hurdle with 5.3 percent.

If, as is to be expected, the official final result roughly confirms this distribution of votes, this will mean a complete reallocation of the 83 seats in the Magdeburg state parliament. The AfD narrowly missed an absolute majority with 39 seats, followed by the CDU with 15 seats. Behind them are the SPD, the Greens and the Left with eight seats each and the BSW occupies the remaining five.

Not only the AfD's election result is historic, but also the voter turnout itself. 77.8 percent of all eligible voters exercised this right and cast a vote. This is not only the highest voter turnout ever seen in Saxony-Anhalt since reunification, but also an enormous increase compared to the 2021 state election, in which there was a voter turnout of 60.3 percent. This shows the highly explosive and groundbreaking significance that has been assigned to this state election.

AfD gets 44.5 percent in the election in Saxony-Anhalt - majorities unclear

Historical failure of the CDU

For the AfD that isElection resultWith an increase of 23 percent, this represents a huge success. This is accompanied by a historic defeat for the CDU, which performed almost 20 percentage points worse than in 2021. The CDU's representation in the state parliament is not only more than halved, it is even the party's worst result since 1990. In addition, the governing party was not able to win a single direct mandate - with the exception of three Left Party candidates in Magdeburg and Halle the AfD has all the constituencies for itself.

The result shows above all the enormous dissatisfaction and the lack of trust in the CDU-led federal and state governments. This can also be seen in the figuresVoter migrationfrom: According to the Elections Research Group, 17 percent of AfD voters voted for the CDU in the 2021 state election. Above all, 38 percent of them were non-voters in 2021, which shows how the AfD managed to transform the great discontent against the federal government into its own momentum.

The CDU's result is even more fatal if you look at itAge groupsof voters separately: According to Infratest dimap, the CDU does not reach ten percent in any of the age groups under 44 and only among those over 70 is it on par with the AfD at around 30 percent. Younger voters see no future prospects in the CDU. The AfD, on the other hand, performs worse among particularly old voters, but achieves over 40 percent among all groups between 18 and 69 years old.

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Economic situation and impoverishment as determining themes

The fact that the AfD performs particularly well among people of working age also suggests that economic concerns played the decisive role in this state election. At least that's what they showPayfrom the Elections Research Group, according to which 21 percent of all respondents consider the economic situation to be the most important issue. Jobs also play an important role at 14 percent.

What is particularly striking is that the AfD is now considered to have more economic powers than any other party. According to the same survey, 37 percent of those surveyed see the AfD as the most competent party in the area of ​​economics, while the CDU only achieved 27 percent. When asked about jobs, both parties scored 23 percent. Also according to oneOpinion pollAccording to Infratest dimap, the AfD has now narrowly overtaken the CDU in terms of approval of the statement “This party is most likely to advance the economy”.

The background is probably that the government parties have not yet managed to get the weakening German economy and especially industry up and running. The news is currently dominated by factory closures and the crisis facing German automobile manufacturers. On the other hand, there are more and more welfare state cuts and there are more and more initiatives to extend working hours.

This also allows the voting behavior ofVoters in a poor financial situationexplain. According to Infratest dimap, 65 percent of these voters voted for the AfD, compared to just eight percent for the CDU. The SPD also performs extremely poorly here – marked by its participation in government – ​​at three percent. So it becomes clear: the constant impoverishment of people in Germany, and especially in the East, which is increasingly lacking in prospects, is a major driving factor for the discontent towards the government parties and the AfD knows how to use this to its advantage.

Cutback plans and lobby guests at the government meeting in Brandenburg

The AfD's fascist agitation is bearing fruit

However, that does not mean that the core themes of the AfD's racist agitation did not play a role. Quite the opposite16 percentthat immigration, asylum and migration is the most important problem in Saxony-Anhalt. 45 percent of those surveyed see the AfD as having the greatest competence in this regard. It turns out that the agitation against migrants, which the AfD has been fueling for years, also had a major influence in this election.

But the AfD's misogynistic role and gender image is also evidentSurveysaway. 50 percent of all men voted for the AfD, while the figure for women was significantly lower at 39 percent. Nevertheless, the AfD is by far the strongest force among women. Accordingly, women also voted more for other parties, although this was fairly evenly distributed.

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Tactical voting

Even beyond that, the SPD, Greens and Left in particular finished almost exactly on par. This is surprising because long before the election it was completely unclear whether the SPD and especially the Greens would even manage to jump over the five percent hurdle. The fact that both parties have finally made it can largely be attributed to the tactical voting of many voters.

The background to this is the German electoral law and the five percent hurdle that applies in the Bundestag and all state elections. If a party does not manage to win more than five percent of all second votes, it does not enter the state parliament and the seats are divided proportionally among the other parties. Accordingly, it would have been possible for the AfD to have achieved a majority in the state parliament with less than an absolute majority of votes and thus formed the government alone.

The organizationCampacthad therefore vehemently advocated tactical voting in advance. She had started a campaign that called on people to “Strategically Vote Against the AfD”. Campact recommended voting for the SPD or the Greens with the second vote in order to prevent a sole AfD government. The Greens in particular took up this message and called on people to vote for a democratic majority.

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Does the BSW help the AfD get into government?

However, this does not seem to have been enough to prevent an AfD government. The idea of ​​a CDU-led minority government with the tolerance of the left, which was often invoked in advance, now seems virtually impossible. Although the CDU had repeatedly struggled in advance with its decision to be incompatible with the Left Party, the arrival of the BSW now seems to have completely eliminated this option.

The CDU's top candidate and the previous Prime Minister Sven Schulze reacted accordingly. He admits defeat and explains that the AfD now has itGovernment contract: “We are the opposition – the government mandate now lies with the AfD.”

This means that the BSW not only sees itself in the situation of preventing another CDU-led coalition, but also possibly becoming the stirrup holder of an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt. The BSW top candidate explained on Sunday evening that they were fundamentally willing to do soClaudia Wittig, when she declared that after this result it would be “completely undemocratic” for the AfD not to participate in the government in any way.

However, what exactly this will look like is still completely unclear. The BSW is currently proposing to appoint a non-partisan person for the position of Prime Minister, who would then govern with changing majorities. However, it is extremely unlikely that this proposal will be accepted by the other parties, even if the SPD's top candidateArmin Willingmanndon't want to rule it out completely.

Since a BSW-AfD coalition also seems unlikely, there is still the possibility of a minority government of the AfD, which will be tolerated by the BSW. Before the election, Wittig declared himself to be a “factual cooperationThe BSW state chairman Thomas Schulze explained to the AfD on Monday how this could actually come aboutDeutschlandfunk: If there were a third round of voting to elect a prime minister, the BSW would abstain, thereby allowing the AfD to elect top candidate Ulrich Siegmund via a simple majority.

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Who does the AfD want to govern with?

However, it is questionable whether the AfD also wants this. It is clear that the party now plans to form a government. The election result isaccording to Siegmunda “very clear government mandate – it could hardly be clearer”. However, it is not yet clear what exactly an AfD-led government with him as prime minister might look like.

Siegmund actually had something else before the electioncompletely different said. He repeatedly insisted that he would only stand for election as Prime Minister if the AfD achieved an absolute majority and could therefore safely govern alone.

But now there is onepartial U-turn: “Of course I will stand as a candidate for Prime Minister in Saxony-Anhalt if it becomes apparent that I have brought about a stable majority,” explains Siegmund and adds: “That is why it is now our aim to organize precisely this stable majority in the next few days and weeks.” In order to achieve this, he “of course first wants to shake hands with every actor in the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt”. However, the AfD's top candidate makes it clear that this does not mean a greater willingness to compromise. Core issues such as migration would have to be “implemented 100 percent” for a coalition to be possible.

It seems unlikely that a coalition with the BSW will come about under these circumstances. State Chairman Schulze didIntersections between positions, for example when it comes to Russia policy, but the BSW apparently doesn't want to elect Siegmund directly. It also seems questionable that Siegmund will make major compromises at the risk of losing face or accept a shaky minority government that relies on votes from the BSW and CDU factions.

The process of forming a government could therefore take longer. If the three rounds of voting for a new prime minister fail, new elections would have to be held.

The postState election in Saxony-Anhalt: How did the AfD win and how does it want to govern?appeared firstperspective.