COP 31 | Climate change “beyond all standards”

There is a risk of further, particularly devastating typhoons and cyclones in the Pacific until the beginning of next year. Photo: dpa/Noaa The current water runoff from glaciers worldwide would fill five Olympic-sized swimming pools – every second. The mass loss of ice amounted to 400 gigatons in 2025 alone. This was the fourth year in a row in which all 19 glacier regions worldwide recorded a decline.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) pointed this out on Monday when presenting its current "Report on the State of the Climate" in Antalya at the beginning of this year's UN climate conference COP 31. Although these are only preliminary figures until the end of September, the full report will be ready next March. The UN organization is nevertheless presenting an “authoritative, scientifically based” report to make the seriousness of the situation clear to the negotiators at COP 31.

"We have entered a new era of climatic extremes," warned UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “Policymakers must act seriously by cutting emissions more quickly, accelerating a just transition away from fossil fuels, and providing the financial resources and protection that vulnerable countries need.”

The UN weather experts also find unusually clear words and speak of a situation “beyond all standards”. Sea levels and ocean heat are at record highs; Extreme weather events caused enormous economic and human costs, shrinking water supplies stored on land. To make matters worse, according to the WMO, the risks are multiplied by a very strong El Niño event, which will trigger even more heat and extreme weather well into 2027 and is expected to peak in December. The global average surface temperature for January to September 2026 was already about 1.47 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, according to the report. El Niño is even threatening a new record year.

"Heat waves, tropical cyclones and heavy rain events are increasing in intensity faster than our historical reference values ​​would lead us to believe."

The meteorologists also point to an increasing energy imbalance between the energy coming in from the sun and the energy being emitted. As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise in the atmosphere - carbon dioxide has now increased by 53 percent since 1750 and methane has increased by 167 percent - the earth's system is storing heat at an ever faster pace. The ocean absorbs 90 percent of this excess heat, and 2026 is on track to be the tenth consecutive year of record high sea temperatures down to 2,000 meters below the surface. This impacts marine ecosystems, biodiversity and the ocean's role as a carbon sink, according to the report. The warmth of the oceans also increases tropical and subtropical storms, accelerates the loss of sea ice in the polar regions and - together with the melting of land ice - drives sea level rise. "This warming is expected to continue for hundreds to thousands of years."

The catastrophic situation also has serious consequences for health. Increasing heat, drought and heavy rain could contribute to heat-related illnesses and deaths, wildfire smoke and poor air quality, malnutrition and food insecurity, injuries, and changing risks from water- and vector-borne diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue, the report said. Many scientists have called on the World Health Organization to declare an international emergency for the first time in the wake of climate change because of the foreseeable consequences.

One result of global warming is the particular severity of the climate phenomenon this year. »El Niño does not bring any additional heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is warmer than ever before. There is simply more heat available that can be released,” said WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo. »We are driving climate change, and El Niño will act as a risk amplifier. Heat waves, tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall events are increasing in intensity faster than our historical benchmarks would have us believe." The Argentine meteorologist noted that "hundreds of millions of people have been exposed to unbearable extreme heat this year, while the catastrophic ice and rock falls and flash floods in Nepal highlighted the complex risks facing communities in fragile, warming high mountain regions."

The melting of glaciers is not just about the future of ski areas, but about geologically caused dangerous natural processes. These have impacts on local and downstream ecology, regional water resources and water quality, as well as global energy balance and sea level, according to the WMO report. We remember: The collapse of a Himalayan glacier and the subsequent catastrophic flash flood in Nepal at the end of August claimed more than 1,300 lives and had a massive impact on the South Asian country's economy.

Warming varies greatly from region to region. A team of researchers led by Francis Zwiers from the University of Victoria (Canada) investigated exactly how. Their study, just published in the journal “Nature Climate Change,” used data from all 46 regions that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) includes in its studies and evaluated using the most common climate models. The strongest warming occurred in the high northern latitudes and reached 3.3 degrees Celsius above the reference value in the Russian Arctic, followed by northeastern North America (2.6°C warming) and northwestern North America (2.4°C warming). The lowest levels of warming were observed in ocean-dominated areas, including southwestern South America, southern South America, Southeast Asia and New Zealand. In parts of Africa, South America and the polar regions, where historical temperature records are sparse or missing, the changes are difficult to quantify, climate researchers admit.

The warming near the ground on land is generally well above the global average values ​​because the oceans have so far acted as huge heat reservoirs. Globally, regions have already experienced around 90 to 94 percent of the warming expected when the global average is 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, and 65 to 76 percent of the warming expected at 2 °C warming. The Paris Agreement aims to keep the rise in global average temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and make efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

Despite all the differences, “the results illustrate the urgent need for adaptation measures in all regions,” write the authors. They also see no doubt that human influence is almost exclusively responsible for regional warming. "Greenhouse gases were the main cause of warming in all regions, while the cooling effects of aerosols and other human influences partially offset these effects."

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