130 kilometers distance

Simply shoot all parties to the moon. Demonstration against gentrification in Berlin, June 1, 2024

There are almost 130 kilometers between Magdeburg and Berlin, and politically it seems to be a world apart at the moment. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD received 43.8 percent of the vote in the state election on September 6, narrowly missing an absolute majority of seats. The British daily newspaper The Independent spoke of a German “Brexit moment,” only this one was “far more dangerous.” Unlike many successful right-wing parties in Europe, the AfD has not even moderated its rhetoric; on the contrary, it has achieved its successes by becoming increasingly extreme.

Two weeks later there will be elections in Berlin. The CDU and the Left Party are fighting for first place, the Greens and the AfD are only a few percentage points behind. The SPD, which has been in government continuously since 1989, is clearly behind. It is unclear who will be the strongest force and which coalition will be formed.

"I am the answer to Saxony-Anhalt." Elif Eralp, top candidate of the Berlin Left Party

In their election campaign, the Berlin parties also refer to the result in Saxony-Anhalt. The state chairman of the Green Party, Philmon Ghirmai, told Jungle World: "If democracy is questioned, Berlin must be the answer." The top candidate of the Left Party, Elif Eralp, put it similarly: "I want to make the capital a place of hope and solidarity. I am the answer to Saxony-Anhalt.«

In the 2025 federal election, the Left Party won the most votes in Berlin with 19.9 percent and achieved 8.8 percent nationwide. The AfD got 15.2 percent in Berlin and 20.8 percent nationwide. It is currently at just under 30 percent in surveys nationwide, and around 18 percent in Berlin. The Left Party achieved around 19 to 23 percent here. She is particularly strong among younger people: 38 percent of 16- to 34-year-old Berliners want her to lead the next government.

Compared to the 2023 House of Representatives election, the AfD is likely to almost double its share of the vote. During the election campaign, she linked everyday problems in Berlin with migration and internal security. For her, problems with housing, schools and administration serve as evidence that Berlin has been run down by decades of “left-green” politics.

For the Left Party, however, housing policy is likely to be crucial. In the Berlin Trend, an opinion poll in the capital conducted regularly by the opinion research institute Infratest Dimap, 32 percent named “housing and renting” as the most important problem. In the referendum “Expropriate Deutsche Wohnen&Co” in 2021, a majority of a good 59 percent - in absolute numbers that was almost 1.04 million Berliners - voted for the socialization of large housing groups. The Left Party has long been vehemently demanding that the decision be complied with. At number one on the Neukölln district list is Rouzbeh Taheri, the former spokesman for the “Deutsche Wohnen&Co” initiative. expropriate".

Added to this is the dissatisfaction with the current black-red Senate: according to the Berlin Trend, 77 percent are dissatisfied with its work. Nevertheless, the CDU is one of the strongest parties, the SPD is well behind.

The Left Party has a realistic chance of becoming the strongest force in the House of Representatives for the first time. Whether she can govern, however, is another question.

For the CDU Berlin, it is “still clear: no cooperation with the AfD and no cooperation with the radicalized Berlin Left Party,” CDU press spokesman Michael Ginsburg told Jungle World. Regardless of who becomes the strongest force, the composition of the next government will most likely depend on whether the Greens and SPD opt for a coalition led by the CDU or the Left Party.

The Neukölln district association, which has grown significantly, is considered a stronghold of so-called Palestine solidarity within the Left Party.

But the question of what compromises forming a government would require from the Left Party and its potential partners and who would support them could lead to conflicts. The most prominent is the dispute over Israel and Palestine, although it has very little to do with national politics. In Neukölln, parts of the district association defended a performance by the rapper Dahabflex, during which he sang, among other things, “Yalla Yalla Intifada” and “Death to the IDF.”

Eralp distanced himself from it and demanded consequences. This puts her in conflict with parts of her own party. The Neukölln district association, which has grown significantly, is considered a stronghold of so-called Palestine solidarity within the Left Party; The Marx 21 network, which emerged from the Trotskyist group Linksruck, is also influential there. Vanessa “Vedi” Emde, a founding member of the state and federal Palestine Solidarity Working Group, is running for second place on the district list.

The SPD and the Greens have therefore formulated conditions for a possible coalition. Ghirmai told Jungle World that calls for violence and questioning Israel's right to exist are unacceptable. Eralp must "make it unmistakably clear that her distancing applies to the entire 'left' in Berlin."

At a panel discussion organized by the Jewish community, the SPD's top candidate, Steffen Krach, told Eralp: "I don't see any consequences so far." About coalition options, he said: "If there are anti-Semitic incidents, then it's over, quite simply." The top candidate of the Greens, Werner Graf, who supports an alliance with the SPD and the Left Party, emphasized with a view to their Neukölln district association: "I will not form a government that is dependent on Neukölln district association.” Such an alliance would therefore have to have a majority even without the Left Party MPs coming from this district association.

What's more, the Left Party doesn't even seem to agree on whether it wants to govern. The “Left in the Left” coalition recently asked the parent party whether it wanted to “co-manage the misery of this government” or make Berlin the “heart chamber of the resistance.” The call, which is being spread by the Left Youth Solid among others, rejects government participation including the SPD and the Greens.

Berlin's financing deficit amounts to several billion euros, and the scope is tight. A left-wing party in government could find itself forced to make ugly compromises. In 2004, the then PDS in the red-red Senate approved the sale of the previously state-owned company GSW, which owned around 65,000 apartments, to private investors - a decision that the Left Party today describes as a serious mistake. On the other hand, there is the argument that giving up government saves you from making bad compromises, but leaves political decisions to others - under the current majority, possibly to a government led by the CDU.

In housing policy, however, the possible coalition conflict is not between the Left Party and the Greens. Eralp and Graf want to comply with the referendum, although the Green candidate recently emphasized in an RBB interview that this was a long-term measure. The SPD candidate Krach, however, rejects socialization - and thus distances himself from previous decisions of his own party.

It is difficult to predict how willing the Left Party would be to compromise. The Berlin regional association has grown from around 7,000 members in November 2023 to more than 18,000.

It is difficult to predict how willing the Left Party would be to compromise. The Berlin regional association has grown from around 7,000 members in November 2023 to more than 18,000. It is difficult to predict what political ideas the many new members have and what concessions they would accept.

What could be crucial is that the members should vote on joining the coalition. The House of Representatives, on the other hand, is elected via twelve district lists. Districts with a large number of members cannot therefore dominate the parliamentary group according to their number of members; In the membership decision, however, every party member would have one vote.

The SPD is also leaving the option open of forming a coalition with the CDU again after the election. Krach is still unknown to many Berliners: According to the Berlin trend, only around a third of those surveyed in the summer knew who he was. Now the investigations against him threaten to shape his public image. The Hanover public prosecutor's office is investigating Krach because of initial suspicion of accepting advantages in two cases as well as possible anti-competitive agreements in a tender and violation of confidentiality obligations. On Wednesday last week, his apartment and other rooms in Berlin and Hanover were searched. Krach rejects the allegations.

The surveys show there will be close competition for first place. Werner Graf prefers a red-green-red alliance to cooperation with the CDU. But in order to move into the Red City Hall, Eralp would have to come to an agreement with the Greens and the SPD - and in doing so, his own party, which had changed significantly within just a few years, would also have to follow suit.