What could decide the race in the midterms

Polls suggest Democrats will take back the House of Representatives in the midterms. Will this also work in the Senate? It will probably depend on particularly contested states. By Jörg

Analysis of midterm elections in the USA What could decide the race in the midterms As of: November 2nd, 2026 • 7:11 a.m

Polls suggest Democrats will take back the House of Representatives in the midterms. Will this also work in the Senate? It will probably depend on particularly contested states.

"There's an old rule in the midterms: The president loses whether he's a Republican or a Democrat, whether he's good or bad." These are words from the mouth of Donald Trump, speaking to journalists in the White House on Friday. And as is so often the case, what he says is only partially correct.

Yes, American voters mostly used the midterm elections to counterbalance the president and strengthen opposition in both chambers of Congress. Whether the president did a good or bad job certainly played a role. The words from the mouth of Trump, always confident of victory, are remarkable. He is preparing for what everyone expects on Tuesday: a serious defeat for the Republicans in the midterms.

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However, it is unclear how difficult it will be for the party. Will the Democrats just win back the House of Representatives? This is considered very likely. Or will they also win the majority in the Senate? This is possible, but far from certain. But that's exactly what makes the crucial difference for the second half of Trump's term in office.

The majority in the House of Representatives gives Democrats the ability to demand information from the government and set up investigative committees. As an opposition, their rights in this regard were very limited. The majority in the Senate also decides on important personnel issues such as the appointment of judges. A president who rules against both chambers continues to have a free hand in foreign policy, but is considered a "lame duck" in domestic policy.

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In the House of Representatives, which is being completely re-elected, two years ago the Republicans won the narrowest majority since 1930: 220 seats went to the Republicans; 215 to the Democrats. For months, observers and surveys have been expecting the Democrats to take back the House of Representatives.

In this chamber, the individual duels in the constituencies are also important - but the nationwide mood plays a much larger role than in the Senate. And this trend is clear: on average in many surveys, which the website Realclearpolitics.com regularly calculates, for example, 51.8 percent want to vote for Democratic candidates and 43.2 percent want to vote for Republican candidates (as of November 1st, 3 p.m.). This gap of a good eight points is outside the statistical margin of error.

The Democrats have significantly increased their lead since September. At the same time, as the Iran war continued and prices rose sharply, the president's approval ratings fell. According to a Gallup poll that has been conducted for decades, Trump is receiving the worst midterm election voter rating in about 80 years.

Before the midterm elections: How high prices shape the election campaign in the USA Torben Börgers, ARD Washington, Morgenmagazin, Das Erste, November 2nd, 2026 • 5:30 a.m. October 29th, 2026

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The result is still difficult to predict - for various reasons. The US survey market is not comparable to the German one. Most publications in the states come from party-affiliated institutes or institutes commissioned by the parties, which often also pursue tactical goals with their figures. Therefore, these surveys must be viewed with greater caution.

In any case, when there is strong polarization, voter turnout is the biggest unknown. In previous elections, Trump has also managed to mobilize groups that are less likely to vote - including young men with a basic education or immigrants with Hispanic roots, the Latinos. It is difficult to predict how disappointment with him will play out in these groups.

Nevertheless, there is an unusually high voter turnout for a midterm election. According to research by the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 53 million people had already voted by mail or at polling stations that opened early as of Sunday.

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In the House of Representatives, the Republicans also have the advantage that they control the election authorities in more states than the Democrats. Over the past two years they have tried to increase their chances by redrawing their constituencies. In seven states, this should mathematically secure them up to 15 additional mandates. Democrats have used the same process, particularly in California, and could gain an advantage of up to six seats. Depending on the extent of the change in mood, this approach can be crucial.

The most renowned medium in the USA for election analysis is the Cook Political Report. He is considered non-partisan and independent and evaluates each individual mandate race. Since 1984, Cook has almost always been right. 97 percent of the seats that were assigned to a party as “probable” were actually won by the party. Cook rates 204 seats as safe or likely for the Democrats in the House of Representatives and 178 for the Republicans. The majority is 218 seats.

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The term of office in the Senate is six years - one third of the seats are newly allocated. Because two senators have resigned, there are even 35 seats up for election. The Republicans currently have the majority in this chamber with 53 votes to 47.

A large proportion of the vacant mandates can most likely be attributed to the two parties because they are particularly popular or the political conditions in their state are particularly clear. Even experienced analysts are currently unable to make an assessment for only seven seats: These are the Senate seats in Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska. But that's probably what matters. The Cook Political Report believes the Democrats can expand their current 47 seats by two to six. The party would need exactly four for a majority of 51.

Two questions are crucial in most races: What experience and reputation do the candidates on both sides have? And how far have the Republican candidates managed to build distance from the unpopular president?

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In Kansas, the Democrats have one of their strongest candidates: Adam Hamilton. He is the founder of one of the largest Methodist churches in the USA. Politically, he is in the middle and has a good chance of replacing the conservative incumbent Roger Marshall. He would be the first Democratic senator from Kansas since 1932.

The situation is the opposite in Michigan. Abdul El-Sayed is the son of Egyptian immigrants and is on the left wing of the Democrats. Although Michigan should actually be easy to win for the Democrats in a midterm election and Trump's tariff policy is being rejected, especially towards Canada, which directly borders it, there is a neck-and-neck race here. Although El-Sayed has younger and migrant voters behind him, he has major problems with some classic democratic core voters. There is also an internal dispute among the Democrats in Michigan. Shortly before the election, Democratic MP Haley Stevens, who was defeated in the primary, even called for Republican Mike Rogers to be elected.

In Texas, on the other hand, Donald Trump used all his might and a lot of money to push through a candidate who was involved in many scandals in the primaries. Ken Paxton could lose Texas, which Republicans believed was safe, to Democrat James Talarico. The examples show that some races do not follow traditional party lines.

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If the majority in the Senate is narrow on Tuesday, a final decision will likely be a long time coming. Then everything could depend on Alaska - for two reasons. If neither the Democratic candidate Mary Peltola nor the Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan receives at least 50 percent of the vote, a special feature of the local voting law applies. There you submit several voting preferences - and they would not be counted until November 18th.

And there's another reason why everything could depend on Alaska: The US Department of Justice is likely to cast doubt on the election in the event of a Democratic victory. Peltola's campaign is accused of seeking out and persuading a candidate to participate in order to confuse voters when they look at the ballot papers. Like the incumbent, his name is Dan Sullivan.

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An earlier version of this article said that in the 2024 congressional election, Republicans won 225 seats in the House of Representatives and Democrats won 220. In fact, Republicans won 220 seats in the House of Representatives and Democrats won 215 in the 2024 election. We have changed the post accordingly.