US midterm elections: How reliable are the polls before the midterms?

US midterm elections How reliable are the polls before the midterms? As of: October 22, 2026 • 7:03 a.m

Given Trump's low approval ratings across the country, many Democrats in the US are hoping for a clear victory in the midterm elections in two weeks. Surveys fuel their confidence. But are they reliable?

James Talarico wants to become a senator from Texas. In the polls, the 37-year-old is just ahead of his Republican opponent Ken Paxton. This is a small sensation because Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades. Even in the states of Alaska, Ohio and Iowa, which are actually safe bastions for the Republicans, the Democrats are on par or even ahead in the polls. If it stays that way, they could win the majority in the Senate.

However, analysts like Harry Enten, data expert at CNN, urge caution: "The average deviation is 3.7 percentage points. When you have all these close races, you have to take that into account, because most of them are within this range. It's too close at this point to say how it will turn out."

In addition, many Trump supporters don't take part in surveys because they distrust the institutes, says pollster Frank Luntz, who worked for the Republicans for a long time:

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However, the large institutes weight their data to compensate for such distortions. And experts like Nate Cohn of the New York Times point out an important difference: This time, Trump himself is not on the ballot. And many of his supporters, who avoid polls, often stay home during midterm elections.

In the midterms, the polls were much more accurate recently, says Bernie Porn from the EPIC-MRA polling institute in Michigan. And this time too the direction can be clearly seen:

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The Democrats have recently increased their lead in the polls for the House of Representatives. But things remain tight in the Senate, even with a view to Texas, where the Republican Paxton has not yet admitted defeat: "There are more Republicans than Democrats in Texas - we will win this race if our people vote!"

Talarico continues to hope that he will be the first Democrat to make it to the Senate for Texas since 1988. But he doesn't want to rely on the surveys alone. "Until the last vote is counted, I will remain the underdog." Both parties are virtually tied in the Senate race.

This topic in the program: NDR Info | News | Oct 20, 2026 | 4:47 p.m