Netanyahu after election in Israel without a majority and still in control

Analysis Difficult formation of a government in Israel Netanyahu without a majority - and still in power As of: October 28, 2026 • 6:22 p.m

Israel has voted, but neither camp has a majority. The formation of a government is likely to take a long time. Until then, Netanyahu will remain in office - with far-reaching consequences for the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and the entire region.

The parliamentary elections in Israel did not produce a clear winner. Former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot and his allies stepped up to replace Benjamin Netanyahu and his partly right-wing extremist and ultra-religious government. They are far from a majority. As things stand, not even an alliance with one of the Arab parties - which some have ruled out - will be enough.

What happens next? Israeli electoral law regulates what must happen now to form a new government. After the official final result is announced, no later than November 4th, President Izchak Herzog will begin his consultations with all parties represented in the new Knesset, the Israeli parliament.

He would then be allowed to give the task of forming a government to a person he considers capable of organizing a majority.

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It is likely that Benjamin Netanyahu will get this job first because his Likud party is by far the largest faction in the Knesset. Netanyahu would then have a maximum of six weeks - with a possible extension - to find coalition partners. So around the end of December.

If this attempt fails, President Herzog could appoint another person to form a government. She would then have four weeks. At the request of the Knesset, a third person could be appointed.

At the beginning of March at the latest, the President would have to dissolve parliament and call new elections, which would then have to take place within 90 days. In any case, Benjamin Netanyahu and his government will remain in office - this situation could last well into 2027 and continue after another election if there is no majority again.

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Because Netanyahu's governing alliance no longer has a parliamentary majority, several scenarios are conceivable: Netanyahu could try to separate one or more parties from the Eisenkot bloc and form a "government of national unity." This could also be difficult because these parties have ruled out a coalition with the right-wing extremist and/or ultra-religious parties.

Nevertheless: According to the most likely scenario, Netanyahu will remain in office in the coming months and, as leader of the strongest faction in parliament, will have the reins of action. Theoretically, a minority government under a Prime Minister Eisenkot or Netanyahu is also conceivable. However, she would need one or more partners to support her.

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No progress is expected in the Gaza Strip in the coming months. International organizations point out that the situation there remains precarious and is likely to worsen again in the winter. However, as long as a new election is possible in Israel, there are unlikely to be any Israeli concessions, for example with regard to the withdrawal of troops or an improvement in supplies for the population. Reconstruction is also out of the question for the time being.

So there is no movement in the Gaza Strip, on the contrary: Israeli soldiers are likely to continue to occupy a large part of the area and the militant Islamist terrorist organization Hamas is likely to continue to exercise a certain degree of control in parts of the Gaza Strip. And the almost daily attacks by Israel - mostly so-called targeted killings, often with civilian casualties - are likely to continue.

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The situation in the West Bank has been marked by acts of violence by Jewish settlers in recent months. In recent years, the Netanyahu government has massively expanded the settlements there in violation of international law, legalized additional settlements under Israeli law, confiscated large areas of land and displaced thousands of Palestinians. Israeli security forces often stand by during settler attacks or are part of the violence. This is also likely to continue because there is no new government that can put a stop to it.

It is also conceivable that the violence will erupt on the Palestinian side - as was the case recently in an attack by two Palestinians on an Israeli military checkpoint on the outskirts of Hebron, in which two Israeli soldiers died.

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Israel's army continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and Syria. There, too, no progress can be expected without a new Israeli government.

Meanwhile, there is speculation about a renewed attack by Israel and the USA on Iran. Before the election, Netanyahu announced that he wanted to "finish the job" together with Donald Trump. The last attack by both countries at the end of February plunged the global economy into a deep crisis. Shipping traffic in the important Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted.

Bab al-Mandab, the entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, is threatened by the Houthi rebels. Here too, the situation could escalate further if Israel and the USA attack Iran.

Israel is largely isolated internationally, partly because of its warfare in the Gaza Strip. Without a new government that places greater emphasis on international partnership, this situation is unlikely to change much. It remains to be seen whether the federal government, which continues to support the Israeli government with the supply of weapons and military equipment, will change its attitude.

This topic in the program: tagesschau.de | Israel has voted - what now? | Oct 28, 2026 | 12:47 p.m