Neighboring countries have little hope for the election in Israel

Lebanon and Syria's neighbors have little hope for elections in Israel As of: October 27, 2026 • 12:49 p.m

The Knesset election is also being closely monitored in the neighboring states of Lebanon and Syria. However, there is little hope of a change in Israel's foreign policy - in the event of Prime Minister Netanyahu's defeat.

The massacre by the terrorist organization Hamas on October 7, 2023 in Israel had far-reaching consequences for Lebanon: just one day later, in the early morning of October 8, Hezbollah fired rockets into the north of Israel. The pro-Iranian militia wanted to demonstrate its solidarity with Hamas.

Israel responded to this with counterattacks, which led to a massive escalation and a ground offensive in Lebanon in 2024. The consequences were thousands of deaths and injuries, the Israeli army razed entire villages to the ground, and hundreds of thousands of people are still on the run today. Israel has occupied the region ever since. With the war between Israel, the USA and Iran at the beginning of this year, the situation escalated once again.

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That's why people in Lebanon are paying close attention when elections are now being held in Israel: "The fate of our country, the fate of our people depends on it," said a 63-year-old retired teacher during a street poll in the capital Beirut. “Netanyahu is constantly threatening us,” she says. "Israel occupies southern Lebanon, and even here in Beirut we are not safe. As long as Netanyahu is in power, there is neither security nor protection! Of course I hope he loses!"

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's challenger is Gadi Eisenkot. As a high-ranking military officer and head of the Northern Command, the former Israeli chief of general staff and leading candidate of the Yashar party coined the so-called "Dahiya doctrine", according to which the fight against Hezbollah also justifies massive violence against civilians and civilian infrastructure.

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What could be expected from him as a potential new prime minister in Israel? The Lebanese journalist and political observer Amin Qammuriya is convinced: Both politicians are pursuing tough measures against Hezbollah on the Lebanon issue until they are destroyed. “However, there are strategic differences between the two,” he adds. "Eisenkot could potentially seek firm security guarantees, while Netanyahu will simply continue to rely on preemptive strikes: he wants to continue the war as long as possible, because that is what he benefits from. His entire political future depends on continuing the war."

There is therefore great fear in Lebanon that Netanyahu will escalate the situation in the country again shortly after the elections, either because his defeat is looming or, in the event of a victory, in order to ensure his success.

The Lebanese journalist and author Jad Yatim is convinced of this: "Eiskot is also a hardliner and a military man. He might make minor concessions in the negotiations in order to smooth out the relationship with the USA - but I don't see him as another Yitzhak Rabin. Here in Lebanon, no one is expecting any real detente after the Israeli elections."

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The framework agreement to end the fighting that Israel and Lebanon signed under US mediation in June of this year shows how deadlocked the situation is. It stipulates that Israel will withdraw its soldiers from Lebanon if Hezbollah is disarmed. However, Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran, refuses to disarm.

A large part of the Lebanese population rejects these negotiations, says Jad Yatim, especially those close to Hezbollah. "And even parts of the government believe that too many concessions have been made to the Israelis. On the other hand, what choice do the Lebanese have? The price of negotiations will in any case be less than the costs of another war."

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A change in policy in Jerusalem could potentially have consequences for its neighbor Syria: Syria and Israel have not had a peace treaty for decades. After the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Israeli troops occupied a UN-monitored buffer zone in southern Syria. Since then, there have been repeated military operations, including air strikes, ground operations and arrests. Just last Friday, a civilian was killed in an Israeli military operation in the village of Jamla.

Nevertheless, Yatim believes that concessions are more likely here: "Syria does not have Hezbollah, and it has signaled that it wants to enter into security agreements and return to the 1974 borders."

It has also now become known that there was said to have been a telephone conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa last year. "Therefore, Israeli compromises or giving in to US pressure could be more conceivable in Syria than in Lebanon, where the situation is much more complex," says the Lebanese journalist, who has been covering Syria for years.

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However, according to journalist Yatim, Israel's security policy is not expected to be fundamentally different. Israel follows the doctrine of “absolute security,” which means that its own security and living space is defended outside its own national borders. "Something like this doesn't change overnight."

"The real problem," Yatim continues, "is that there is currently no one in Israel who represents a real peace perspective. A peace discourse is practically non-existent there, and no one is proposing to translate military pressure into real political peace solutions. Therefore, I do not expect any significant changes."

This topic in the program: NDR Info | News | Oct 27, 2026 | 10:47 amtagesschau.de | Elections in Israel: What expectations do the people of Lebanon have? | Oct 27, 2026 | 11:43 a.m