After the Knesset election: This is how things could continue in Israel

Israel has voted - but who will rule the country in the future is unclear. The timetable for forming a government is strictly regulated by constitutional deadlines. And yet several scenarios are now conceivable. An exercise

After the election to the Knesset This is how things could continue in Israel As of: October 28, 2026 • 9:54 a.m

The people of Israel have elected a new parliament. But the day after it became clear that there were no clear election winners. According to partial counts, long-term Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government camp is ahead of his rival Gadi Eisenkot's opposition alliance. But both fall short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. The Arab Israeli lists made significant gains with 17 to 18 seats - so they could still play an important role in the search for a government. But the situation is complicated - and several scenarios are now conceivable in Israel. An overview.

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The official results must be published no later than eight days after the election, i.e. November 4, 2026. Within seven days of the publication of the final result, President Izchak Herzog instructs a member of parliament to form a government. This doesn't necessarily have to be the party whose party is at the top, but rather the one with the best chance of uniting at least 61 MPs behind them. Whoever manages to forge a more or less broad and stable coalition will govern. The first attempt is 28 days plus a maximum of 14 days extension.

The parties should therefore begin negotiations immediately in order to reach a majority. The Arab-Israeli parties United List and Raam have shown themselves open to cooperation with Eisenkot's bloc. Support from the Arab-Israeli parties could pave the way for the opposition to power. However, it is questionable whether Eisenkot would work with them. It is possible that not all opposition parties would agree to this path. This makes Eisenkot's path to power even more difficult even if his bloc ends up in the lead.

Netanyahu's bloc, on the other hand, has little opportunity to gain additional seats - especially since some smaller right-wing parties have failed to meet the 3.25 percent threshold required to enter parliament.

If the first attempt fails, the second candidate gets the job. He also has 28 days. An extension is not an option. There is then one last option: at least 61 MPs must propose a candidate within 21 days. This must then form a government within 14 days.

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If no bloc manages to unite at least 61 MPs behind it, a candidate could try to govern without a majority of their own. He would have to rely on individual MPs. According to experts, Arab MPs could support a minority government without becoming part of a coalition. In this scenario, the two Arab-Israeli lists could play a crucial role in giving the government a majority in votes. A fifth of the approximately ten million Israelis are Arabs with an Israeli passport.

According to political scientist Tal Elovitz, a minority government would also be conceivable under Eisenkot. According to him, a particularly high turnout among Arab citizens "indicates a strong desire for partnership." “The bottom line is that there currently appears to be an opportunity to form a minority government under the leadership of Eisenkot,” Elovitz said. But this could “change depending on the final election results”.

If Eisenkot still appears open to an alliance with the Islamic-conservative Raam Party under Mansur Abbas and the United List of predominantly other Arab-Israeli parties, Netanyahu is likely to try to block his path. The head of government and his ultranationalist and religious coalition partners are likely to do everything in their power to portray such an alliance as illegitimate or even a betrayal of the State of Israel.

After the election in Israel: Forming a government could take months Pia Steckelbach, ARD Tel Aviv, tagesschau24, October 28, 2026 • 9:00 a.m. Scenario 3: Government of national unity Given the extreme polarization in Israel, a government of national unity seems rather unrealistic. But commentators regularly speculate about a coalition of parties that excludes Arab and ultra-Orthodox groups. According to a recent survey, 55 percent of Israelis prefer such an alliance to new elections if the election does not result in a clear majority.

The scenario already existed: in 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz - like Eisenkot, an ex-general and centrist politician - agreed to share power despite their deep hostility after three elections within a year; they wanted to take turns as heads of government. But the alliance collapsed after a year and elections were held again.

Before the current election, there were media reports that President Herzog was working behind the scenes to bring Netanyahu and Eisenkot together in the event of a political stalemate. However, this scenario would face strong resistance from both sides, especially from the opposition bloc, which sees the election as a referendum against Netanyahu. Eisenkot had already ruled out taking part in a Netanyahu government.

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If no candidate succeeds in forming a government, there will be new elections. Between April 2019 and March 2021, Israelis elected a new parliament four times as parties were unable to agree on a viable alliance.

Parliament then dissolves automatically. In this case, new elections will take place within 90 days. These would then be due by mid-April 2027 at the latest. Until then, incumbent Prime Minister Netanyahu will remain at the head of a transitional government.