Elections in Israel: When every vote really counts

You'll be hearing a lot of Hebrew these days at the airports in Berlin, Los Angeles, Madrid and other centers of the Israeli diaspora. On October 27, Israelis will elect a new Knesset. Voting abroad is not permitted. Anyone who currently listens to liberals and leftists in the diaspora knows: those who can fly fly.

It is a choice of fate, say those for whom another term of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be intolerable, whether inside or outside the country. There is only one chance left to avert the final fall into a religious and authoritarian regime.

For the supporters of the extreme right-wing government under Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, however, things have been going well so far. The religious Zionists, for example, have come closer to their declared goal of colonizing the “holy ground”. Billions of the state budget flow into settlements in the West Bank. In order to achieve their goal, some of the settlers, supported by the government, also use physical violence. There is virtual impunity for them.

Palestinians in the West Bank feel the consequences of this every day. The violence against them is exploding. On average, there are six attacks by settlers on Palestinians every day. The country's religionization is also progressing: religious-nationalist cells are consciously moving into secular areas and trying to anchor themselves ever more deeply there. In any case, society as a whole – increasingly after October 7th – has moved to the right and become more religious.

And then they succeeded in something that seemed almost unimaginable three years ago: large parts of society have now forgotten that this government ignored warnings before October 7th and destabilized the country for months so that Hamas was able to invade Israel on that day, killing almost 1,200 people and kidnapping 251. To this day, Netanyahu is blocking an independent commission of inquiry.

When it comes to Gaza, the coalition has not yet achieved everything the far right wants. The Gaza Strip is not yet populated again by Jews. But they are closer to this goal than ever since 2005, when the last settlers there were carried out of their homes by Israeli police and soldiers. The only grievance in the eyes of right-wing extremist ministers like Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich and their loyalists is that there are still Palestinians there.

Bibi as head of government means security, his voters believe, regardless of how much evidence to the contrary his critics cite: the failure of the military, secret service and government on October 7th, the repeated wars, the many dead hostages, the immense destruction caused by the wars with Iran, without achieving a single war goal, such as the overthrow of the regime in Tehran or the destruction of the nuclear program.

Essentially, the recent war with Iran has resulted in the geopolitically important strait, the Strait of Hormuz, which was previously open, now being blocked. And yet: Only Netanyahu can lead the Israelis safely through this storm, according to his voters. Her loyalty is so great that he can resort to even the most obvious tricks without losing credibility.

According to Israeli television station Channel 12, citing high-ranking and anonymous sources, Netanyahu is said to have tried to persuade Trump to attack Iran again before the Israeli elections - and also before the congressional elections in the USA. Netanyahu can be anything but certain that he will be re-elected to office. Given this, the obvious calculation could be: elections would fall victim to war.

A defeat would also be fatal for Netanyahu's religious and radical coalition partners. They look forward to their dream: Greater Israel. The tender for thousands of new residential units east of Jerusalem is already underway. Peace activists warn it would more effectively separate the West Bank from Jerusalem. And then there are the big plans for state restructuring. The government initially stopped the restructuring of the state, including the disempowerment of the Supreme Court.

That was the condition for opposition politician Benny Gantz, among others, to join the so-called emergency government after October 7, 2023. He left in mid-2024. This was followed by steps to restructure the judiciary, such as a law that gives elected political officials more power to appoint judges. The government coalition has announced that it will intensify its plans to restructure the judiciary if it wins the election. They are likely to continue working to limit the power of the Supreme Court and place it in the hands of the government - with more vigor than before.

The opposition does not have an ideological counter-proposal to all of these developments. Above all, they unite under the premise of preventing Netanyahu from being allowed to continue in office. There is Gadi Eisenkot from the Jashar (Geraudeaus) party, who became military chief under Netanyahu. After entering politics, he gradually turned away from it.

Eisenkot is the founder of the so-called Dahiye doctrine, a military strategy that involves the widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure in the fight against enemies. He speaks out against a Palestinian state, but he also takes a stand against the escalating settler violence. In short: He pursues the goals of the right, but he wants them to be less radical than the previous government. He is joined by Avigdor Lieberman from the Israel Our House party, actually a right-wing hardliner, but who is primarily driven by the fight against privileges for ultra-Orthodox.

Benny Gantz from the Blau-Weiß party dropped out of the race a week before the election. Netanyahu's former challenger withdrew his candidacy because polls predicted that Blue and White would fail to meet the 3.25 percent hurdle. To the left of Eisenkot and Lieberman are the centrist Jair Lapid and the Democrats, a coalition of the left-wing Meretz and the Avoda labor party, led by Jair Golan. Many see Golan as the hero of October 7th. He got into his car on his own, armed himself and drove south to evacuate survivors of the Nova music festival and save them from Hamas terrorists. Golan has revived the Zionist left, the question is: how much?

It is impossible to predict how these elections will turn out. At least that's what the people of Israel agree on. According to most surveys, there is a stalemate between the opposition and the governing coalition. 38 parties have registered for the elections and up to 13 are expected to enter the Knesset, with some of them hovering around the 3.25 percent threshold.

The country's future could depend on a small party's missed entry. And the forecasts agree on something else: a coalition of the Zionist anti-Bibi bloc will not have a majority on its own. Cooperation with Arab parties is needed. In this case it would be the so-called United List, consisting of the socialist-communist Chadash party, the Ta'al party and the more Arab-nationalist Balad party. Added to this is Mansour Abbas' Islamic party Ra'am, whose list the Israeli centrist and Zionist politician Joav Segalovitz recently demonstratively joined.

There is a model for such an alliance. The extremely broad coalition, also called the “Government of Change”, which included right-wing, left-wing and the Arab Ra’am party. It was launched in 2021, led by right-wing politicians Naftali Bennett and Jair Lapid. It collapsed a year later and with it the hope of many Israelis for change. In fact, this government managed to build a bridge into Palestinian-Israeli society. It addressed the crime problem in Arab society, settlement construction was at least slowed down, settler violence existed, but not nearly as rampant as it is today.

If such a coalition has the opportunity to govern after October 27, peace talks with the Palestinians are not expected to begin the next day. However, smaller steps could be expected: Even if the occupation does not end, a more moderate coalition could at least bring some relief to the Palestinians.

The current opposition has announced an independent investigation on October 7th if they win. And there is likely to be a budget that puts less money into settlement construction and subsidies for ultra-Orthodox communities and invests more in education, infrastructure and housing in Israel's heartland.

And foreign policy? Netanyahu's government has driven Israel into its greatest isolation ever. Many have legitimate hope that his image could improve again with his departure. Normalization agreements with other Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, could also be within reach, which could also strengthen the front against the Iranian regime.

Important steps, some say. Others dismiss it: it's only a matter of time before Israel collapses. But they, the fatalists among the opposition, are also going to vote this time. To prevent the worst. Or at least postpone it.