Before the World Climate Conference: The world continues to end

These are special times in which the World Climate Conference is taking place this year. That's what people from environmental associations and authorities say again and again when they swear in for COP31 - the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, which will take place in Antalya, Turkey, from November 9th.

There is the climate crisis, which is ravaging the world more noticeably than ever before. In Germany, the heat claimed more than 16,000 lives in the summer months. In Nepal, global warming is driving melting glaciers, which can trigger disasters like the deadly flash flood in late August.

Only recently, Unep, the leading environmental agency of the United Nations, reported that with their current climate policies, countries around the world threaten to warm the earth by 2.8 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 compared to the pre-industrial age. This has irreversible consequences such as the death of entire ecosystems. The UNEP report also states that the world has a 50 percent chance of returning to 1.5 degrees of global warming by 2100, for example through reforestation or CO2 storage technologies.

Then there are the geopolitical crises and wars that push the climate out of focus. Autocracies have become stronger, right-wing conservative and right-wing extremist rulers are bluntly declaring war on climate protection and those who support it. They are stamping out money for climate protection, rolling back the achievements of the past few years and fraternizing with fossil fuel companies.

Dylan Kava expects to have to spend a lot of time at the World Climate Conference in Antalya defending the findings of climate science - populist voices that cast doubt on the science have been so loud recently. Kava is spokesman for the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network (PICAN), in a region that has contributed little to the climate crisis but is particularly threatened by its consequences. And that large industrialized countries do not pay enough financial compensation for climate damage.

The war that US President Donald Trump launched against the Iranian regime has not only killed people, but also put global energy supplies under pressure. On the one hand, fossil fuel companies are making a profit from this - on the other hand, renewables are becoming even more attractive because they are proving to be cheaper and more crisis-proof.

Individual events go against the right-wing trend: In the USA, the midterms dealt a significant blow to Trump. In Brazil, left-wing President Lula da Silva defended his office against right-wing extremist Flávio Bolsonaro. Shortly before the start of the COP in Antalya, Lula presented a plan for phasing out fossil fuels. In Serbia, the student list also surprisingly triumphed over long-time ruler Aleksandar Vučić - exciting in terms of climate policy in a country where large lithium deposits are hotly contested.

Finally, this year there is the special feature that the climate conference has dual leadership: Turkey is the host and Australia is leading the negotiations. Both countries rely heavily on coal energy, but are now trying to make a name for themselves on the international stage as pragmatic climate protectors. For example, the Turkish COP presidency set a global electrification target that would increase the share of electricity consumption worldwide from the current 20 percent to 35 percent by 2035. However, the proposal does not contain any requirements for the electricity to come from renewable sources.

In this mixed situation, associations from Germany are calling for the German delegation to take a pioneering role at the conference. The decision to phase out fossil fuels in 2023 must be underpinned by measures and binding interim goals, says German Environmental Aid. In addition, the development organization Germanwatch demands that the federal government must keep its financing commitments. At the COP30 a year ago in Brazil, it was agreed that significantly more money would have to be invested in climate adaptation by 2035. The African group of countries now wants to revisit the decision in Antalya in order to determine implementation steps for the 2035 goal.

Will Germany take a pioneering role? The federal government has significantly reduced the budget for development cooperation, from which 85 percent of German climate financing comes. Federal Minister of Economics Katherina Reiche (CDU) is slowing down the expansion of renewables. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) himself does not want to travel to the world climate conference because of “other obligations”. And the EU has also ruled out new financing commitments.

Dylan Kava from the Climate Protection Network of the Pacific Islands doesn't know how much can be wrested from the industrialized countries at COP31. He says he still doesn't want to lose hope.