USA shells targets in Iran: The next Iran war is just around the corner

It was the first confirmed US attack in Iran since the beginning of September: several projectiles were fired on the Iranian island of Keshm in the Strait of Hormuz, the largest island in the Persian Gulf, on Tuesday night. According to US President Donald Trump, an air defense facility was hit. The US military justified the attack with a previous attack by Iran on a US aircraft.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the attack shortly before the start of the midterm elections in the USA on Tuesday is not the first of its kind in recent weeks. Explosions on Keschm were already reported on Monday; At the end of October there were explosions in Tehran and the north of the country. However, it was not confirmed whether these were the smaller US attacks now reported.

So is this a new outbreak of war between the USA, Iran and potentially Israel? Even if there is a formal ceasefire, peace has not returned since the war broke out at the end of February 2026.

The US military has blocked the entry and exit of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-July. At the same time, more and more ships from other states bordering the Persian Gulf, which the Strait of Hormuz connects with the world's oceans, have dared to transit with US support. The International Maritime Organization counted a record 31 incidents in October; a ship that was hit sank.

This background noise could soon lead to another hot war. There are a few indicators. The indirect diplomatic process between the USA and Iran, with Qatar as mediator, seems to continue to falter at the same points as before. Analyst Dennis Citrinowicz writes on X: Neither Washington nor Tehran wanted another round of war, but neither was willing to make the necessary concessions. And therefore more willing to bear the risks of a military confrontation.

In addition, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz works in Washington's favor - the longer the better. Since the stop in oil trading means that hardly any foreign currency flows to Iran from oil exports, the Iranian currency, the rial, continues to devalue. The exchange rate has reached an all-time low: 2.72 million riyals costs 1 US dollar. In December 2025 it was about 1.5 million per US dollar.

The second indicator is the ongoing shift of US equipment and troops towards Iran. Anyone who walks around the Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv today will see a whole row of refueling aircraft lined up. There are also similar reports from Jordan and Qatar. There is also the Navy: around 20 US warships are currently in the operational area. Around 50,000 US soldiers are already stationed in the region.

Further reinforcements are on the way: The aircraft carrier “USS Theodore Roosevelt” left the USA at the end of September and is scheduled to arrive near Iran at the end of November. An amphibious task force with over 2,000 men is also on the way and is also scheduled to arrive at the end of November. This group could, among other things, land on islands. The massive construction is reminiscent of the lead-up to the Iran war in the spring.

The third indicator is the politicians themselves: Washington has reportedly already informed the Gulf states that there will be a “campaign” after the midterms. Israel's current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was already lobbying for a renewed US attack on Iran before the election in Israel on October 27th. Now that his previous coalition has failed to win a parliamentary majority, his interest in it is likely to grow.

Another hot war with Iran increases the chances of a war cabinet in Israel and the formation of a unity government of the largest parties - in which Bibi would probably be involved again. The path to escalation is set.