Presidential election in Bulgaria: incumbent Jotova wins narrower than expected

Bulgaria's next head of state will not be decided in a runoff election until next Sunday. After 99.9 percent of the votes were counted in the first round on Sunday, 34.8 percent went to the ex-Socialist incumbent Ilijana Jotova. It is supported by former president and current head of government Rumen Radev and his “Progressive Bulgaria” party.

The former interim head of government and candidate from the pro-European opposition camp Andrei Gyurov came in second with 32 percent. The candidate of the nationalist Rebirth (Vazrashdane) party, Kostadin Kostadinow, also made it into the double digits with 12.5 percent. Voter turnout reached a historic low of 22.5 percent (2021: 38.6 percent).

Polls had shown Jotova, who supports dialogue with Moscow and is against military support for Ukraine, with a significantly larger lead over Gyurov. On Sunday evening she said her election campaign was focused on "promoting peace": "I will not allow foreign flags to be waved on our streets. I only want to see Bulgarian flags there." Regarding the extremely low voter turnout, she said: “Anyone who thinks that you can change something in the country without going to the polls is wrong.”

Your competitor in the runoff election on November 1st, Andrei Gyurov, is clearly in favor of supporting Ukraine. He called on Jotowa to have an “honest and civilized” TV debate. “We owe it to all the citizens who voted for us, but especially to those who decided to stay at home because they are not yet convinced,” he said. Now is not the time to celebrate. Bulgaria needs an active head of state who can explain his decisions and bring people together instead of dividing them.

The second round of voting could well hold a few more surprises. Because it is unclear who the current right-wing voters will support Kostadinow - if they even vote again.

Despite Euroscepticism and a pro-Russian stance, the Rebirth party sees itself in opposition to the government of Prime Minister Rumen Radev. Against the backdrop of two drone attacks off Bulgaria's coast on October 6th and 13th, he stylized the runoff election on Monday as a decision about war and peace. Kostadinov said the party would decide - possibly after surveying its supporters - whether to support either side in the second round of voting. The voters are free to make their own choices.

Another big unknown is how the supporters of the “Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria” (GERB) party of long-time Prime Minister Boyko Borissov will behave. GERB had decided not to put forward its own candidate. According to the Bulgarian survey institute Alpha Research, only 30 percent of the traditional GERB voters went to the polls on Sunday.