Parliamentary election in Sweden: close call, outcome uncertain

Yikes! That was closer than expected. Even the day after, it was still unclear in Sweden which political bloc won the parliamentary election. The lead of the red-green opposition over the liberal-conservative-right camp around Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is so small that literally every vote still counts. Also those that will not be evaluated until Wednesday, such as those of the Swedes abroad who voted at one of the embassies.

When the polling stations closed at 8 p.m. on Sunday, things initially looked different: the so-called exit polls, a trend calculated from surveys in front of polling stations, made the opposition look like the sure election winner for about an hour. Then, after counting 100 electoral districts, the first forecast from Swedish television SVT came out - and suddenly the opposition was only ahead of the right-wing government camp with a single mandate. On Monday morning there were 3 mandates. Since then it has been 176 to 173 in the upcoming Stockholm Riksdag. This narrow lead is based on only around 28,000 votes.

But not everything remained uncertain on election evening, which suddenly became a mega-election thriller. An early finding: The right-wing populist Sweden Democrats have suffered surprisingly heavy losses. The party, which has had great influence on government policy as the majority for just four years, is not used to losing. Since she entered parliament in 2010, things have always been looking up for her.

Now that's over: They lost almost 3 percentage points and, according to preliminary figures, are at 17.6 percent. This means they will also lose their status as the second largest party - Kristersson's Moderates will take over this again with almost 20 percent. Their small coalition partners, the Christian Democrats (6.2) and the Liberals (5.4), are also gaining ground. It was unclear for a long time that the Liberals would even make it over the 4 percent hurdle and was hailed as a sensation on election evening. An offensive campaign for tactical voters was apparently successful – partly at the expense of the Sweden Democrats.

What also became clear early on: alongside the right-wing populists, the Social Democrats are the only party that has to accept losses. Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson was unable to convert the Left-Greens' long lead in the polls into a clear election victory. On the contrary - your party has to come to terms with a historically poor result. It is only around 28 percent, two and a half percentage points below the 2022 result.

The cause is believed to be an election campaign in which Andersson relied less on a clearly social democratic program than on a half-baked courtship for the political center. This is said to have driven quite a few of their voters to the Left Party - which, with a gain of 1.5 percentage points (now at 8.2 percent), is virtually the election winner. What she can make of it, however, is still completely open.

Because even if the lead of the four opposition parties remains, which is currently expected, it is still far from clear who will govern Sweden next. All four together would have a majority - but a coalition from the Center Party in the center to the Left Party on the far left is virtually unthinkable. The Social Democrats could theoretically come to an agreement with the Center Party and the Greens and rely on Left Party support in parliament. Minority governments have a tradition in Sweden, and the current one also found its own form.

However, the Left had repeated its demand on the evening of the election: If a government depends on their votes, they also want to sit in that government. “Our voters are worth just as much as those of others,” said chairwoman Nooshi Dadgostar at the Left election party on SVT.

A coalition with the Left Party? Then it would be better to have new elections, that is the attitude of center leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist. However, it is considered unlikely that this will happen. Sweden's parties are used to tight results and usually find a compromise at the last minute, said an SVT election expert. However, he didn't know what this might look like.

On the right side, Ulf Kristersson is not yet giving up. After this close election result with simultaneous gains for him and his two coalition partners, he also wants to look for new opportunities himself. Swedish media reported on election night that he would not congratulate Magdalena Andersson on an election victory as long as her government options were unclear.

That is the crucial difference between the two camps: If the right side had won, everything would have been clear. They would have continued their common policy - this time with ministerial positions for the Sweden Democrats. Their course: hard line against migrants, strict fight against crime, liberal economic policy, climate protection as a side issue.

Talks between the red-green parties began unofficially on Monday. The new Reichstag meets for the first time at the end of September. Whether Magdalena Andersson can gather a majority behind her by then - and what a government led by her could look like - remains the exciting question.