New Zealand general election: temporary stalemate

New Zealand voters gave parties a challenging mandate over the weekend. According to the counting of the regular votes so far, the conservative National Party of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has 42 seats, the opposition Labor Party under Chris Hipkins has 36. Together with their respective allies, two political camps face each other, the balance of power of which can only be finally determined once all ballot papers have been counted.

According to provisional figures from the Electoral Commission on Sunday, Labor is with 29.36 percent, just ahead of National with 29.21 percent, but due to the electoral system, National is ahead in terms of seats. Since 1996, New Zealand has had personalized proportional representation, which is partly based on the German system. There are mandates from both constituencies and from a national election of party lists. This includes a compensation mechanism consisting of so-called overhang mandates. There is also a 5 percent clause.

Now the Māori party Te Pāti Māori only received 0.57 percent of the vote nationwide, but won five direct mandates. The parliament is now growing from 120 to 131 seats through compensatory mandates, which means that 66 mandates are required for a majority.

The provisional distribution of seats gives the previous coalition of National, the economically liberal ACT Party and the populist New Zealand First 67 seats. The opposition Labor, Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori would have a combined 64 seats. But there are still another 400,000 special votes to be counted, which makes up 14 percent of all votes in total.

The special votes include the votes of New Zealanders abroad. These have so far favored left-wing and green parties, which is why the distribution of seats could still change. The electoral commission wants to publish the final result on November 27th.

If Luxon's alliance then loses the majority, the small Opportunity Party could become the kingmaker. The group led by Qiulae Wong overcame the percentage hurdle for the first time with 5.96 percent and sees itself as a political alternative from the center to the traditional left-right division. Because the party demands an unconditional basic income and a land tax, the neoliberal Luxon has so far ruled out cooperation. Wong, on the other hand, is keeping talks open with both political camps.

The fragmentation of the party system is also an expression of growing dissatisfaction with the two major parties. The National government took power in 2023 after Labor had previously lost significant support among voters under Jacinda Ardern and her successor Hipkins. Luxon had promised economic recovery, more efficient administration and a return to sound fiscal policy. But the hoped-for revival has so far failed to materialize.

Many emigrate to Australia where they expect better wages and job opportunities. Cuts in public services and the tense situation on the housing market also weighed on sentiment. Another conflict concerns the relationship between the European majority society and the Māori, the indigenous population of New Zealand. The focus is on the Treaty of Waitangi from 1840 between the British Crown and Māori chiefs. The Luxon government's attempt to redefine the principles of the treaty had sparked violent protests. A corresponding bill failed in parliament. This dispute is also likely to influence the formation of a government. The Māori Party has already signaled that it could envisage working with Labour, the Greens and Opportunity.