Lessons from the election in Saxony-Anhalt: Good-humored right-wing extremism

Everything suggests that a right-wing extremist party will govern Germany again for the first time since 1945. Ulrich Siegmund could be elected Prime Minister on October 6th. In the new Magdeburg state parliament, a simple majority in the third round of voting is enough for him to become Prime Minister. The BSW has announced that it will abstain. Siegmund only needs one abstention from the CDU, or a secret yes vote.

There is nothing to suggest that the AfD will moderate its power. On the contrary: the closer she got to success, the more radical and vulgar she appeared. She doesn't care about human rights. One has to fear that it won't just be rhetoric. An AfD-led government could make life hell for many people even without a majority in the state parliament. It can censor textbooks and order police officers, it can order the secret service and prosecutors. On September 6th, the emergency for German democracy occurred.

The routine reactions sounded all the more astonishing. Head of the Chancellery Nina Warken now wants to “continue the reform course that we started there”. SPD leader Bärbel Bas thinks: “First of all, we have to say: we maintained our result.” Felix Banaszak is happy about the great Green result.

You want to shake them. Hello, is anyone else home? The catastrophe is here, and the representatives of the center can only think of the usual empty phrases. One could have been prepared.

What follows from this historic election evening? There are six theses.

A new party system is forming, first in East Germany. It consists of two blocks. Here the AfD, which aims for an illiberal democracy à la Orbán, on the other hand the democratic parties, from the Left Party to the CDU, in which only a minority wants cooperation with the right-wing extremists. A conservative like Sven Schulze has much more in common politically with the leftist Eva von Angern than with sinister cultural revolutionaries like the AfD mastermind Hans-Thomas Tillschneider.

This new front line is not a purely emergency community, but is based on content. That's the difference to the firewall. West Germans, who only find a government led by the CDU or SPD with decent majorities normal, consider the Saxon consultation mechanism to be a crutch. But this German normality is just ending. When it comes to the party system, the East is the future of the West. If a Bundestag were to be elected next Sunday, three parties would have to join forces against the AfD.

A confusing situation is now emerging in Magdeburg: a stalemate between the AfD and the democracy bloc (with uncertain cantonists from the CDU). The BSW is confused in between. It is the biggest surprise of election night. Sahra Wagenknecht has once again shown her instincts. She knows that there are enough voters beyond the AfD who share her goal: everything should be different.

Nothing has been decided yet, but the BSW will probably become a stirrup for the right-wing extremists. It was actually founded to take votes from the AfD. Such moves are typical of the new party system. Italians can only smile wearily.

For a long time it was thought that high voter turnout was good for democracy. Today you can no longer be so sure. The AfD has mobilized more non-voters than ever before. The AfD is not fully mobilized, as was long hoped. It's the Democrats.

Why? One answer is: Voting AfD puts you in a good mood. Until recently, many of their voters could still be described as whiners who felt left behind and disadvantaged.

But now the bad mood has changed sides. It is the middle parties that say what is not possible. The right-wing extremists, on the other hand, invite you to take a selfie, beam and write on their posters: Everything will be fine.

Ulrich Siegmund's success is reminiscent of Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York. Both won as smiling underdogs. Both are young, in their mid-30s, and excited about the future. The person literally outshines everything. Both have taken on the political establishment aggressively but cheerfully. Mamdani with implementable equality ideas to make life affordable, Siegmund with sweet and poisonous promises: German nursing staff are returning from Switzerland to the lovely AfD country because it is so beautiful in Bitterfeld.

In terms of content, everything distinguishes the cosmopolitan democratic socialist from the right-wing extremist poster boy. But both mobilized with social media, optimism and a feeling: It depends on you. Both conveyed that pride matters. Mamdani with refusing to apologize for being a Muslim and a socialist. Siegmund's performance in Saxony-Anhalt was aimed at the pride of eastern voters. This is something more than the truism that you win elections with personalization. It is a political model that is perplexed in the party headquarters of the former people's parties.

A finance minister in Swabia would like to cut off money from a possible AfD government in Magdeburg. And some Wessi are now complaining about the East. The West German bourgeoisie really seems to be running out of patience, at least if you follow the Spiegel and the FAZ. We pay the solos – and then the fascists vote? The debate seems like a journey back in time to the 1990s. The West, which has the right to raise children, threatens the stubborn East child with withdrawal of pocket money.

No money for right-wing extremists, that sounds understandable at first, but it is toxic. It is just an echo of the AfD strategy, which thrives on divisions: Germans against migrants, East against West. If an AfD prime minister violates the constitution, Berlin can turn off the country's money supply by federal force under Article 37 of the Basic Law. We'll talk about it when it does. Not now. And sober, without Western fantasies of punishment.

This election result is a shock, it is devastating, and not just for democrats in Saxony-Anhalt. But it's not surprising.

For years, the centrist parties have not found a way to stop the AfD. She grows and grows. Friedrich Merz wanted to cut the AfD in half, now he has helped cut the CDU in half in Saxony-Anhalt. The defeat of the Union is also an expression of the steaming disappointment with the federal government. If Black-Red sticks to its course - social cuts and rearmament - Saxony-Anhalt will not be the AfD's last electoral victory. It's high time for the democratic parties to think about something else.

The debate has revolved around the AfD for years. When you talk to people involved in East German civil society, they often say in annoyance: I want to talk about my issues, and not always just about them - does that help or harm the right-wing extremists?

Everyone against the AfD – that was not successful. You can only lose in this field because the AfD always wins attention. It has to be about shifting the line of conflict. Not long ago there was an SPD politician who came to the Chancellery with a demand for redistribution (minimum wage) and a feeling (respect). Does anyone remember?

The current election campaign in Berlin is also focused on the conflict over rents and socialization, on a question of power and distribution. The AfD is not pulling any punches in this debate. Bringing distribution issues to the forefront at the right moment is much more effective than any firewall.