Conflict in the Horn of Africa: Ethiopia and Eritrea on the brink of war

A regional alliance against Ethiopia is taking shape in northeast Africa and could turn the escalating war between Ethiopia's government and the insurgent Tigray rebel movement TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front) into an international conflict. The presidents of Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan met with local President Abdelfattah al-Sisi in Egypt on Sunday and discussed “regional issues of common interest,” according to Egyptian officials. The summit followed a meeting of the African Union (AU) at which Sissi called for “dialogue” on cross-border conflicts.

The four governments primarily engage in dialogue with each other - and they are all opponents of Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Since claiming access to the Eritrean Red Sea coast, Eritrea has supported the insurgent TPLF and brought together Ethiopian government opponents at meetings in Sudan.

Sudan accuses Ethiopia of supporting the insurgent militia RSF (Rapid Support Forces) and, together with Egypt, is a strong opponent of Ethiopia's development of hydropower in the upper reaches of the Blue Nile. This can reduce the water flow to Sudan and Egypt seasonally. For Somalia, Ethiopian support for the breakaway Republic of Somaliland is a thorn in the side.

There has been war in Ethiopia again for a few weeks. The TPLF founded a new rebel alliance with other armed groups in the country on September 20th and, a few days later, carried out attacks on army positions in the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions from the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, which it largely controls. Late last week, however, Ethiopian government troops repelled the rebels and entered Tigray alongside anti-TPLF Tigrayan militias.

The fighting in southern Tigray was apparently very intense. The city of Alamata was rocked by heavy artillery fire for days last week, and the city's hospital reported at least 52 civilian deaths, including in the shelling of a busy market. Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa was attacked by drones on Friday night. The drones struck near the army headquarters.

Ethiopia's army has now apparently gained the upper hand. On Sunday, she patrolled the streets of Tigray's capital Mekelle, which the TPLF had bloodlessly evacuated the day before. The rebels said they had “temporarily” withdrawn and would now rule “from somewhere else.” They still control most of the province, and since they are supported by neighboring Eritrea, unlike in the first Tigray war in 2020-22, they do not need to fear being surrounded.

At the weekend, pro-government Ethiopian circles speculated that the TPLF leadership could have completely defected to Eritrea. This seems unlikely, but it could indicate that Ethiopia's government is considering pursuing the Tigray rebels into Eritrean territory.

Ethiopia and Eritrea are both preparing for a possible confrontation. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea's capital Asmara last Thursday and at the same time expelled ten Eritrean diplomats from Ethiopia for "direct and indirect hostile and belligerent acts." Eritrea responded a few hours later by breaking off “all” diplomatic relations.