Knesset election in Israel: It remains complicated

T he good news first: The right-wing to right-wing extremist coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the government of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent Gaza war, was punished in this election. So far it has had a comfortable 64 seats. Just over half of the ballot papers have been counted this morning, the government bloc has around 55 seats - significantly fewer.

Now the bad news: Netanyahu and his Likud party are projected to have won the highest number of individual votes. They are currently about 5 seats ahead of the runner-up, Gadi Eisenkot from the Jashar party. Two things can be predicted from this. First: coalition building will be complicated. Both blocs – the current government and the Zionist opposition – lack the necessary majorities of 61 out of 120 seats in the Knesset. As of now, the blocs with which the election campaign was carried out are unlikely to be sustainable. Second: Netanyahu will try to stay in power. The fact that he won the most votes should help him.

The most obvious solution from Netanyahu's perspective is now to try to force a unity government: the Likud together with the Zionist opposition bloc. Many opposition politicians, including Eisenkot, had spoken out against such a coalition. On election night - when the post-election polls showed the government bloc even more clearly punished - he made his view clear again: "I will immediately implement the people's decision and replace the Netanyahu government."

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Can Eisenkot and the other opposition parties keep this up? In the final stages of the election campaign, Netanyahu showed what he was counting on: his relationship with US President Donald Trump, especially in the context of the Iran war. And hardly anyone seems to doubt that there will be another round of war between Iran, the USA and Israel; there are increasing signs of an imminent outbreak.

The Iran war could be Netanyahu's ticket to a unity government. If war breaks out again, relations with the US could become exactly the ace in the hole that Netanyahu needs. Also because the majority of the population in Israel supported the war against Iran; many see it as necessary for Israel's long-term security. The real election campaign for a government majority with the votes cast by Israelis has only just begun. And Netanyahu, counted but not beaten, should be at his best in this fight.