Israel Votes: Five Scenarios for Forming a Government

When the citizens of Israel vote for the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, this Tuesday, only those parties that get over the hurdle of 3.25 percent will receive mandates. The parties then try to form a coalition - which is actually always necessary in Israel with its fragmented party landscape. If a coalition can be formed, it forms a government and distributes ministerial positions. Politicians from lower places on the list in parliament then move up for the ministers for the respective parties.

One issue that had a strong influence on the election campaign was the person of Benjamin Netanyahu: in 1988 he entered the Knesset for the first time for the right-wing conservative Likud party. Since then, it has been difficult to imagine Israeli politics without him. He became prime minister for the first time in 1996 and has held the post for almost 19 years since then. No other prime minister in Israel's history has achieved such a term in office.

Netanyahu has long been a controversial figure and has even been hated by parts of the population since the attack by Palestinian militias from the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023 in southern Israel. Not only was he ultimately responsible for Israel's fortunes as prime minister, but, according to media reports, he had previously ignored several warnings from the United Arab Emirates, for example, about a Hamas attack plan. In addition, he is still preventing an independent commission of inquiry that many in the country want.

The Israeli party landscape is currently divided: into the pro-Netanyahu bloc of the current government parties, the anti-Netanyahu bloc of Zionist opposition parties, the bloc of Arab parties and the right-wing Amcha Israel party, whose loyalty for or against Netanyahu has yet to be proven. In order to achieve a Knesset majority and thus become capable of governing, the anti-Netanyahu and the pro-Netanyahu blocs would each need 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. According to the surveys, none of the blocks can reach this number so far.

So what could happen next after the election? What coalition solutions are there – and could Israel even end up facing another election?

According to polls, Likud lost massively between the 2022 election and the 2026 election - up to 10 seats. The entire coalition therefore only has around 50 seats instead of the necessary 61.

According to surveys, some parties within his government coalition have gained ground, others have declined: the right-wing extremist Otzma Yehudit of Internal Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is particularly popular among younger people. The party won 6 seats in 2022, now depending on the survey it will probably be 7 to 9. According to the surveys, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, on the other hand, would lose seats and its mandates could be reduced from 11 to 8.

However, the decision will be made on election day and not in surveys whose results differ. What will also be crucial is how many voters exercise their right to vote – for example in the Arab community. As voter turnout increases, it becomes more likely that the Amcha Israel Party will not make it over the 3.25 percent hurdle. And it therefore cannot help a Netanyahu coalition get over the 61-seat hurdle.

Conclusion: Rather unlikely. The election results would have to deviate very significantly from the consensus of the surveys.

The Zionist anti-Netanyahu bloc also doesn't get 61 seats in any poll, but is closer to 52 to 56 seats. His central promise is: no coalition with Netanyahu. Another promise from the majority of parties within the bloc is: no coalition with the Arab parties.

This doesn't work mathematically; one of the two promises would have to be broken in order to form a coalition. The Arab party Ra'am has expressed interest in participating in the coalition, but the Zionist party Democrats have not ruled it out. But the other three opposition parties do.

Ra'am was already in a coalition from 2021 to 2022, under Jair Lapid and Naftali Bennet. The two of them and their party B’Yachad are part of the opposition bloc again this year. However, Bennet had emphasized that he did not want to enter into such a coalition again. The other Arab list, the Joint List, has no interest in participating in government.

The second unknown for the opposition to form a coalition is its election result. Currently, Ra’am has 5 seats in the Knesset; In the polls it comes in at 5 to 7. Party leader Abbas Mansour himself told the taz that he wanted to get 8 seats. But the surveys don't show that. Accordingly, the Arab lists have a total of 13 to 16 seats.

Conclusion: There are many “ifs” on the way to the opposition forming a coalition. If she is willing to form a coalition with the Ra'am. If they manage to win the mathematically necessary seats. An unsafe box.

Together, a coalition of Netanyahu's Likud, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar opposition party, which is leading in the polls, B'Yachad and the Israel Beitenu party could get 61 seats. What the three parties have in common is that they are more right of center - but not as extreme right as Netanyahu's previous coalition partners.

Basically, the four parties would have political similarities - if it weren't for Netanyahu's personal details. Eisenkot recently ruled out forming a coalition with him. Even if the position of prime minister would rotate within the coalition.

A survey by the daily Ma'ariv recently showed: 60 percent of respondents would prefer a unity government if a clear majority for or against Netanyahu is not achieved. Only a little over 20 percent would prefer new elections.

Conclusion: Rather unlikely - the politician Netanyahu is too unpopular with the leaders of the opposition parties. But the constellation is not excluded either.

The Israelis can sing a song about new elections: they voted a total of five times between 2019 and 2022. The formation of a government failed several times, and when it did work, the coalitions were unstable and failed before their term of office expired.

But if no clear majority emerges – as the polls suggest – coalition formation could fail again and again. And ultimately there will be new elections.

Conclusion: Possible especially if Netanyahu, who will remain in office temporarily, hopes that a renewed phase of uncertainty will bring advantages for the next possible election round.

In Israel, it works quite well to make individual political decisions together with parties that are not in the government coalition. Because each law is voted on individually in the Knesset.

It would be possible for the opposition bloc to settle for the 52 to 56 seats and form a minority government without the participation of Ra'am. It would then have to seek majorities in the Knesset for individual bills.

One possible legislative proposal: to limit the prime minister's term of office to a maximum length. The Arab parties could support such a project in order to get the government to a majority of 61 or more seats out of 120.

The opposition bloc has already put forward corresponding plans. Such a bill was already passed in the first reading in 2021 - even then with votes from the opposition. However, it did not become law before the end of the then government's term in office.

Conclusion: possible. However, since every government project would result in a struggle in the Knesset, such a construct would be very unstable and may not last long.

In any case, any form of government formation would take some time. Last time it was about 50 days. And what happens during this time is likely to influence the process.

It is not unlikely that the Iran war will escalate with full force again relatively soon after the elections. The USA is again moving military equipment to the region, and the rhetoric on all sides is escalating. The USA has again suspended sanctions against Russia in order to get their oil and diesel onto the market and thus reduce price pressure somewhat. In addition, the travel warnings for the countries of the Middle East have been adjusted.

It remains to be seen whether Netanyahu would benefit from such an outbreak of war. The image of the “strong man against Iran” could be effective; many in the population continue to support the war against Iran. On the other hand, the latest round of the Iran War also left severe devastation in Israel; over twenty people died.

Before the elections, Netanyahu reportedly tried to launch an attack on Iran. He is said to have lobbied US President Donald Trump. But he is said to have postponed another attack and not given Netanyahu the green light. Netanyahu's office denied the report.

The Israeli broadcaster Channel 12 also reported that there was a conflict between Netanyahu and the Israeli military's chief of staff Eyal Zamir. Accordingly, Netanyahu ordered an unspecified “military action” that could lead to a conflict with Iran. Zamir demanded more information and did not comply with Netanyahu's instructions. The Prime Minister himself denied this report.