US foreign policy after the midterms: Trump still has two years to build a monument for himself

War with Iran. Ukraine as a plaything of the great powers USA, Russia and China. Carrot and stick games for the Europeans. US President Donald Trump's foreign policy behavior over the past two years has caused more than irritation and often a desperate lack of strategy when dealing with one of the most powerful men in the world.

Will the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections in the USA bring about a turning point? So more stability, reliability and even the hope of a return to old transatlantic practices? The success of the Democrats in the US Congress will not significantly change the president's foreign policy. This is what Célia Belin from the European Council on Foreign Relations in Paris assumes: Trump has already disrespected the majority of his own Republicans several times and will probably do this even more so with the Democrats.

From their perspective, this means that he will continue to use his power as president excessively - to weaken long-standing US alliances with Europe, for example, to order military operations or withdraw troops or make deals with other countries. Despite the Democratic majority, Congress has little influence on Trump, says Belin.

Foreign policy issues definitely played a role in the election campaign. For example, oil and gasoline prices, which rose significantly due to the war with Iran. But issues that primarily concern Europeans tend to go under the radar: the war in Ukraine, the annexation fantasies towards Greenland or dealing with Europe and the European Union itself. The new Democratic representatives who are now coming to Washington must first be familiarized with these issues, according to the Paris think tank. And that means work for Europeans if they want to be heard.

US expert Nevada Joan Lee calls on Europeans to use the momentum against Trump, to set priorities and to think long-term. Lee has the year 2028 in mind, when a new US president is to be elected, and the period beyond. “Imagine a Democrat winning the 2028 election, but someone like Pete Hegseth (Trump’s defense secretary) winning four years later,” she warns. Europeans should prepare themselves for this. And now.

Liis Mure from the International Center for Defense and Security in Tallinn sees the situation as much more worrying. "Trump will now obviously be much more limited in domestic decisions and will therefore devote more energy to foreign policy. That will certainly not give us more stability," Mure said in a statement. Trump wants to create a monument for himself and go down in the history books.

Trump will pursue this goal not only with monuments and statues at home in the USA, but also as a “bringer of peace”. “His understanding of foreign policy has been revolutionary so far,” analyzes Mure. “In the sense of: I tear everything down and create something completely new.” As an example, the scientist cites the three-way meeting planned by Trump - or better: hoped for - with China's President Xi and Russian ruler Putin in two weeks at the APEC summit in China. “He wants to create something big.”

To ensure that such efforts do not get completely out of hand and that the concerns of several NATO states that are expecting sharp Trump attacks do not come true, hope now also lies with the Republicans in Congress, says Mure. "So far, Trump has hardly been criticized publicly. Internally, yes, especially since the beginning of the Iran war. Perhaps it is now more possible to influence his foreign policy within the party."