The Chancellor's communication problem: Friedrich Merz, the anti-oracle from Sauerland

As soon as Friedrich Merz opens his mouth, the words that pour out of him are inversely proportional to reality. This means that the Chancellor has a remarkable ability to predict things that don't happen. So he is a kind of anti-oracle. So when Merz announces that he has the confidence to “halve the AfD with its voters” and that with him as chairman the CDU can “achieve 40 percent” again (2018), then one can almost certainly assume that the opposite will occur, see Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD has halved the CDU.

Likewise in the most recent general debate in the Bundestag, when he hurled at the AfD parliamentary group leader: "Ms. Weidel, today you can hardly walk because of your strength. But you don't have an absolute majority, and you won't achieve that in Germany either." Let's analyze briefly: In Saxony-Anhalt, with 39 seats in parliament, the AfD is only three more short of an absolute majority. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where elections are taking place in two weeks, the right-wing extremist party is at 35 to 37 percent.

In Saxony it is 42 percent and in Thuringia it is 40 percent. So which sensible person would dare to predict that the AfD will not be able to win an absolute majority there in the future? Exactly, nobody. Except Merz, the anti-oracle from Sauerland. Anyone who thinks this is a coincidence should remember the election of Chancellor. Merz assured the evening before that the next day "everyone would be on board. Without exception." He predicted he would be elected in the first round.

The rest was an inner celebration for Merz observer Angela Merkel, who was sitting in the stands. Two ballots long. So what happens next for the man who is not Merkel? “Giving up is not an option for me,” he says. The Anti-Oracle has spoken. The Chancellor's days are probably numbered. But who could take his place? To find out, I quickly contacted the deceased oracle octopus Paul in the afterlife.

The taz is an independent, left-wing and opinionated daily newspaper. We have been arguing in our comments, essays and debate texts since the taz was founded in 1979. We often cannot and do not want to agree on an opinion. That's why you'll find some completely opposing positions here - all part of the very broad left-wing spectrum of opinions.

Just before the editorial deadline, I received a selfie with three feeding pots, each of which had photos of politicians on it. This is where things get blurry. But I think I can see that the octopus is eating Paul out of the potty, whose photo looks suspiciously like Merkel.