CDU loses the election in Saxony-Anhalt: turning point for the CDU

Stunning spreads when the first forecast appears on the big screen on Sunday evening at 6 p.m. Embarrassed faces, loud exhalations, a sip of beer - this is how the Christian Democrats reacted who gathered at the Hotel Maritim in Magdeburg for what is commonly called an election party. But the CDU is light years away from a party atmosphere. Shock is a better description.

“This is significantly worse than we even partially expected,” says state manager Mario Zeising. "You have to digest that first. This is a completely new situation." The CDU gets well under 20 percent, 44 percent for the AfD. ZDF calculates that the right-wing extremist party is only one seat short of an absolute majority. “I’m speechless,” says one woman. She had expected a bad result, but not this bad. “The voters don’t want it any other way,” says a stunned man. He was very involved in the election campaign, handing out flyers in front of the bakery at 8 a.m. on many Saturdays. And now this.

When the incumbent Prime Minister Sven Schulze stood on stage half an hour later among other members of the leadership of the state CDU in the Maritim, he also expressed shock. Schulze admits that the election winner is the AfD: "It's a defeat for us. We will have to deal with this result." And: It's about recognizing the signs. No more word about the government contract he had hoped for so much. Instead, Schulze sounds as if he is one step away from resigning.

There are already initial voices in the state party calling for exactly that. The Junge Union Saxony-Anhalt wants the entire state board to go. Others say it wasn't Schulze's fault. He gave everything in the election campaign. The state executive board will meet on Monday at 5:30 p.m. and then everything will be discussed. This will be a long meeting, says one of the members.

The man doesn't know what to do with this election result - which is still not clear. Even if it were possible: leading a minority government with 18 percent, does that even make sense? And even before election day, there had been controversy in the CDU about whether collaboration with the Left, no matter how cautious, was even conceivable. There is a lot of helplessness in the CDU this evening.

Before going to press, the worst case scenario had not yet occurred: the AfD appears to have missed an absolute majority. The BSW sees the projection later in the evening at five percent. This would mean that the Wagenknecht troops would be in the state parliament. With the move in, the likelihood of an AfD sole government decreases, while at the same time the AfD's chances of seizing power increase.

Because the Sahra-Wagenknecht squad could tip the scales - and possibly help the eternally smiling AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund into the prime minister's office. The top candidate had at least announced in advance that her party wanted to abstain from the third round of voting, in which a simple majority is enough.

But if Siegmund stands for election, speculation will continue about possible defections from the CDU. One name that is mentioned again and again is Ulrich Thomas, a CDU representative from the Harz Mountains. He vehemently denied this to the taz.

As Prime Minister, Schulze can remain in office for the time being; unlike in some other federal states, there is no deadline by which the new Prime Minister must be elected in Saxony-Anhalt. But many in Magdeburg doubt whether he will survive the next few days as party leader, even if they don't want to say so publicly. But some also say that the party absolutely needs to keep calm and sort itself out now.

Bundestag member Sepp Müller, who mobilized against any agreement with the Left Party shortly before the election, sounds somewhat different. Müller initially refuses to talk to the press, then gives a short interview to ZDF. “We as the CDU have experienced a historic defeat,” says Müller. And: “There can be no more of this.” However, he doesn't say what that means.

To form a government without the AfD, the CDU would need the left. However, a party conference resolution by the federal CDU rules out cooperation with this party, as well as with the AfD. The new Secretary General Franziska Hoppermann confirmed this on election evening: “Our lines are clear: no cooperation with left-wing extremists or right-wing extremists.”

During the election campaign, Schulze said that he would not make himself dependent on one party or the other; with him as head of government, there would be no ministers from either the AfD or the Left Party. There had been speculation that Schulze might try to find a solution with the left – perhaps with a “consultation mechanism,” as it is creatively called in Saxony.

For part of the CDU-Saxony-Anhalt, however, cooperation with the Left, even below the threshold of tolerance, would be at least as bad as cooperation with the AfD. For some members it might even be worse.

If you talk to these MPs about it, you quickly come to the GDR's oppressive government system. “The Brocken was not accessible to us, it was a restricted area, the Russians were on it,” said Ulrich Thomas, member of the state parliament and district chairman in the Harz, to the taz during the election campaign.

The left has not yet properly distanced itself from the GDR; socialism is coming back with them. "During the GDR era, I wasn't allowed to take a high school diploma, I wasn't allowed to study because I had a different political opinion. And now these people are coming around the corner."

In the evening, AfD federal chairman Tino Chrupalla brought another scenario into play: a minority government led by the AfD. Ulrich Siegmund was the election winner and had a government mandate. “You can also be tolerated with a minority government, that is also a possibility, without a coalition having been formed,” said the AfD leader. But he can probably only hope for the BSW.

In any case, no one in the state CDU can imagine that. A man who doesn't want to give his name says: "If you want to hear my opinion: now all we can do is go into opposition." If four people join forces against the AfD, then the CDU will continue to lose.

Events in Saxony-Anhalt are being watched with concern from Berlin, especially since the Chancellor's authority is now at stake. The majority of their own voters blamed federal politics for the defeat, and almost half said that Merz had damaged the CDU in the election campaign. And this despite the fact that the Chancellor was virtually hidden during his visits to Saxony-Anhalt.

In the evening, Chancellor Nina Warken described the election results in Saxony-Anhalt as a “breaking point” for the state and the party and otherwise tried to rally slogans for perseverance. What is now important is to continue the reform course without controversy and to bring people along even better. There will be no further personnel changes in the government.

The Chancellor himself did not comment on Sunday until the editorial deadline; on Monday afternoon, after the meetings of the Presidium and Federal Executive Board, he plans to appear before the press together with Schulze in Berlin.